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Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props May 22

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published May 22, 2023
5 min read
MLB Prop Bets May 22

Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Hits (-275 at DraftKings), Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 at DraftKings)

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4.8/5

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Freeman is surely excited to be back in Atlanta on Monday. He’s obviously comfortable at Truist Park and also hit .348 with two homers against his former team last year. He’s also thrilled to be facing Charlie Morton on Monday. In his career against Morton, Freeman is 8 for 15 (.533) with two doubles and two home runs. He’s likely to get going early on Monday, making at least one hit almost a sure thing while the over on 1.5 total bases has tons of value too.

In addition to great career numbers against Morton, Freeman also has an 11-game hitting streak. He’s unlikely to snap that streak in his former team and against a pitcher he’s crushed throughout his career. During that 11-game hitting streak, Freeman has had eight multi-hit games and 10 extra-base hits. The odds are good that he’ll either have two hits or an extra-base hit again on Monday, allowing him to get over 1.5 total bases once again.

Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120 at DraftKings) 

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After a sluggish start to the season, the entire St. Louis lineup has gotten hot lately, in part because Arenado has gotten hot. Arenado has become one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He’s batting .338 in May but has been even hotter over the past week, batting .407 with a 1.211 OPS over his last seven games.

On Monday, Arenado and the Cards will face lefty Brandon Williamson, who impressed in his MLB debut last week. But Arenado has worn out lefties this year, hitting .306 with a 1.103 OPS despite a dreadful April. More importantly, he has at least two total bases in nine of his last 11 games thanks to a long string of doubles and a homer on Sunday. Against an inexperienced lefty like Williamson, Arenado should keep it going and either have multiple hits or get another extra-base hit.

Chris Bassitt Under 5.5 Hits (+120 at DraftKings)

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Bassitt and the Blue Jays face a tough assignment on Monday when they visit the Rays. However, Bassitt has been the best pitcher in baseball during the month of May, throwing 23 scoreless innings over his last three starts. In those 23 innings, Bassitt has allowed just nine total hits. In fact, his disastrous season debut against the Cardinals in early April is the only time in his nine starts this year that he’s allowed more than four hits.

Obviously, Tampa’s offense presents the biggest challenge that Bassitt has faced this year. But the Rays have also been held to four runs or less in three of their last four games, showing some vulnerability against quality pitching. Right now, no pitcher in baseball is better than Bassitt, who is unfamiliar to most of Tampa’s hitters, making it likely that he’ll stay hot and leave the game with fewer than 5.5 hits allowed.

Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)

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4.8/5

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This year hasn’t been Wheeler’s best season. He’s had some ups and downs, going 3-3 with a 4.06 ERA. But he’s still striking out batters at a high rate, registering 61 punch-outs in his 51 innings. Wheeler has struck out at least seven batters in four of his last five starts, making it likely that he’ll be able to continue that trend. 

Keep in mind that he’s pitched at least six innings in four of those five starts, something he did just once in his first four starts of the season. With Wheeler going deep into games, he has more of an opportunity to collect strikeouts. He’s also facing a young Arizona lineup that could be vulnerable against a top-flight pitcher. While the Diamondbacks don’t strike out a lot, the hitters on their roster have a combined 19 strikeouts in 60 at-bats against Wheeler, giving Philly’s ace an excellent start to keep up his run of seven-plus strikeouts.

Charlie Morton Over 4.5 Hits (-145 at DraftKings)

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Morton is putting together a solid season, going 5-3 with a 2.85 ERA. But he has troubling numbers against several current Dodgers, the team he’ll face on Monday. Los Angeles stars Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are a combined 19 for 49 (.388) with seven extra-base hits in their careers against Morton while David Peralta is 7 for 13 against the Atlanta ace. The Dodgers also boast what has become one of the deepest lineups in baseball and have scored at least five runs in five straight games, so they’re more than capable of doing damage against Morton. 

Of course, given Morton’s success this year, his over/under for hits is just 4.5. That doesn’t give him much margin for error, which is why there is value in taking the over in this game. While Morton has done a good job of limiting the damage against him, he’s allowing a hit per inning this year. Since he’s gone at least five innings in each start, it’s reasonable that he’ll allow at least five hits in this game. In fact, Morton has allowed at least five hits in seven of his eight starts in 2023, and that’s unlikely to stop against the Dodgers.

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Bryan Zarpentine

Sports Betting Analyst & Content Specialist

Expertise:
MLB
NCAAB
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Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts
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Experience:
14 years
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