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Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props October 9

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published October 9, 2023
18 min read
Best MLB Player Props

Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145 at DraftKings)

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4.8/5

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Going just 2 for 12, Castellanos is not one of the Philly hitters who have carried the team early in the postseason. But that is part of what gives him such favorable odds to have a breakout game on Monday. Keep in mind that he hit .272 with 68 extra-base hits during the regular season. Castellanos is someone who’s capable of having multiple hits or getting one extra-base hit.

More importantly, he crushes Atlanta’s Game 2 starter, Max Fried. Castellanos is 8 for 13 (.615) with a double and homer in his career against Fried. Even if the Braves have to go to their bullpen, Castellanos should get at least a couple of at-bats against the southpaw. Even in two at-bats against Fried, it’s possible for Castellanos to collect multiple bases.

Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Hits (-200 at DraftKings), Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+120 at DraftKings)

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Among hitters, Carroll is one of the hottest hands in the postseason, so it makes all the sense in the world for bettors to ride him. Over three playoff games, he’s 6 for 12 with five runs scored. That’s all you need to know about how productive he’s been thus far. He also has four RBI, two walks, and a home run, so he’s doing it all. The bottom line is that Carroll is getting on base and using his speed to get around the bases and score runs.

The caveat is that he’s 0 for 6 in his career against Los Angeles starter Bobby Miller. That’s a little concerning, although Carroll is still red-hot. Also, the Dodgers aren’t going to leave Miller on the mound too long, so Carroll should get at least a couple of at-bats against the Los Angeles bullpen. Since he only needs one hit and one run, that’s not asking too much.

Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings), Under 2.5 ER (-115 at DraftKings)

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Wheeler is in a tough spot because he looked sharp in his first postseason start against the Marlins. However, facing the Atlanta lineup will be a huge step up from that. But the Georgia native has always pitched well in Atlanta and was the winning pitcher in two of the three starts he made against the Braves this season. That means he’s likely to have his best stuff with him in Game 2.

For what it’s worth, Wheeler failed to collect more than five strikeouts in both of his September starts against the Braves. But after eight strikeouts in his start last week, 5.5 is way too low not to take a chance on the over. Meanwhile, Wheeler was so sharp in his last outing that it’s reasonable that he can hold the Braves under 2.5 earned runs in Game 2. Keep in mind that Atlanta’s hitters have played just one game in the last week, so they still might need some time to get up to speed against Wheeler, keeping the Braves quiet offensively yet again.

Max Fried Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-115 at DraftKings), Over 3.5 Hits (-165 at DraftKings)

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The Braves are taking something of a chance with Fried, who hasn’t pitched since September 21 because of a blister. Granted, he threw a simulated game during Atlanta’s week off, but it’s still a little bit of a mystery if he’ll be ready. That’s a good reason to face him, especially given some of his past struggles against Philadelphia’s hitters.

Most notably, Fried will have a short leash with the Braves down 1-0 in the series. After a few weeks off, it’s a toss-up whether Fried will have the endurance to last five full innings if he pitches well. If he struggles, he could get an early hook, which is why we’re favoring under 14.5 total outs. At the same time, an over/under of 3.5 hits is far too low, even for a quality pitcher who won’t be asked to go too deep in a game. The Phillies have looked good offensively in the postseason, while players like Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto all have excellent numbers against Fried. That’s enough to think that the lefty will give up a few hits.

Zac Gallen Over 4.5 Hits (-180 at DraftKings), Over 1.5 Walks (-135 at DraftKings)

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While the D’Backs are in a good position after winning Game 1, Gallen has to face a talented and desperate Los Angeles lineup in Game 2. Despite winning 17 games during the regular season and having a fantastic season, he wasn’t at his best last week against Milwaukee and may not have had better fortune against the Dodgers. Keep in mind that Gallen has allowed at least five hits in four of his last five starts, so that number seems far too low. Keep in mind that Arizona will give him a little longer leash because he’s their ace and the D’Backs lead the series. That means he’ll be in the game longer and is likely to give up more hits.

The same thinking applies to Gallen’s walk total. While he can afford to be aggressive with Arizona leading the series, this is still a deep and dangerous Los Angeles lineup. Gallen will have to be careful and willing to walk certain hitters. He’s also issued multiple walks in four of his last five starts, including three walks during the Wild Card series in Milwaukee. Gallen also walked three batters in each of his two starts against the Dodgers during the regular season, making this a good bet.

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AUTHOR

Bryan Zarpentine

199 Articles

Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.

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