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Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props October 30

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published October 30, 2023
18 min read
Best MLB Prop Bets

Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 at DraftKings)

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4.8/5

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Based on his historic hitting streak during the playoffs, it’d be foolish to bet against Marte until that streak comes to an end. Even after it ends, it might not be a bad idea to back Arizona’s star second baseman. If you haven't heard, Marte has a hit in all 14 playoff games the Diamondbacks have played. He’s hitting .333 with nine extra-base hits in those 14 games. While he’s just 1 for 9 in his career against Max Scherzer, most of those at-bats came while Scherzer was much better than he’s shown lately. Also, most of Marte’s at-bats in Game 3 should come against the Texas bullpen.

In his 14 games, Marte has six multi-hit games. In the other eight games, Marte hit an extra-base hit four times. That means he’s gone over 1.5 total bases 10 times in 14. With plus odds, it’s worth taking a chance on Marte staying hot and either having another multi-hit game or cranking an extra-base hit in the spacious Chase Field outfield. 

Josh Jung Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135 at DraftKings)

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4.8/5

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The Texas lineup was a disappointment in Game 2, and that was after the Rangers came alive barely in time to salvage Game 1. However, Jung has been steady throughout the postseason and might be the most reliable hitter the Rangers have right now. The rookie is 3 for 8 in the World Series and seems unfazed by the moment, which is why it feels safe to back him in Game 3, even if the streaky Rangers could struggle to get going after going cold in Game 2.

In 14 postseason games, Jung has just five multi-hit games, although he had two hits in Game 1 of the World Series. But he also has seven extra-base hits, giving him multiple avenues to going over 1.5 total bases. His power hasn’t been there in recent games, as Jung has gone six straight games without an extra-base hit. However, he’s hit the ball hard and has at least one hit in four of his last five games. That makes him as good a candidate as anybody to make an impact and collect multiple bases in Game 3.

Christian Walker Over 0.5 RBI (+160 at DraftKings)

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4.8/5

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For the record, betting on Walker to hit a home run isn’t a bad idea. Despite facing Max Scherzer just three times in his career, one of those at-bats was a home run. While Walker hasn’t homered in nine straight games, a hitter with his power is due. However, an RBI prop is a little safer, despite Walker only collecting two RBI in his last nine games since the start of the NLCS.

The key for Walker is the fact that Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte hit in front of him. Carroll has heated up again with six hits in his last three games, while Marte is doing damage every game. In other words, those two are getting on base right in front of Walker, giving him RBI opportunities. Given the speed that Carroll and Marte have on the base paths, there is an even greater chance that Walker will be able to drive in a run against Scherzer and the Texas bullpen in Game 3.

Brandon Pfaadt Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105 at DraftKings), Over 1.5 Walks (+110 at DraftKings), Under 2.5 ER (-160 at DraftKings)

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Pfaadt has been a revelation for the Diamondbacks during the playoffs. It seems like he’s figured out everything at the exact right time. Granted, he hasn’t been perfect and the D’Backs have wisely limited his outings. But he’s been effective on the mound. More importantly, Pfaadt probably won’t pitch long enough to allow more than two runs. After giving up two runs over four innings against the Phillies in Game 7 of the NLCS, he was out of the game. It’ll be a similar formula in the World Series on Monday.

Despite the abbreviated outings, Pfaadt has excelled at striking out hitters. Across his 9.2 innings during the NLCS, he struck out 16. Even if he doesn’t go much longer than four innings, Pfaadt has the stuff to strike out at least five batters. However, we will fade Pfaadt a little bit when it comes to his control. He has not allowed a lot of walks during the playoffs. But he did walk two in Game 7 of the NLCS. Also, the Rangers were the third-best team in the majors at drawing walks during the regular season. They’ve remained patient in the postseason, meaning they should force Pfaadt into a couple of walks.

Max Scherzer Over 3.5 Hits (-150 at DraftKings, Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-125 at DraftKings), Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)

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Scherzer has started to show his age this season, especially in the postseason. Across his two starts, he’s lasted just 6.2 innings while allowing seven runs on nine hits and three walks. To be fair, both of those starts came against the Astros, who are a more potent offensive team than Arizona. But it’s still a good idea to fade Scherzer against a team that just racked up nine runs on 16 hits in Game 2.

Scherzer being ousted before going five full innings is obvious based on his ineffectiveness in the playoffs thus far. With that shortened outing, it’s going to be tough for him to collect more than four strikeouts. In fact, he’s had four strikeouts or less in five of his last seven starts, dating back to the regular season, largely because he isn’t pitching deep into games. Of course, if Scherzer has a poor outing as we expect, he’s bound to give up at least four hits, so if you believe in the narrative that Scherzer is finished, these are all good bets.

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AUTHOR

Bryan Zarpentine

168 Articles

Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.

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