Best NRFI Bets Today: Back This Cy Young Contender

Monday’s slate of games may be small, but there are plenty of intriguing NRFI options as multiple top-tier pitchers take the mound. One of those pitchers is current AL Cy Young contender Corbin Burnes who is hoping to close the gap on the oddsboard with a dominant performance against the Rays. We then turn our sights towards the White Sox and Mariners as both offenses are poised to continue to struggle against two productive arms. For more information about the NRFI market and what factors into them being worth a wager, check out our breakdown of Daily No Run First Inning.

When looking to make a wager on an NRFI, it’s important to have as many sportsbooks as you can get in order to line shop the very volatile market. Each sportsbook also has their own unique signup bonus, giving new users a boost to their bankroll to bet with during the 2024 MLB season. FanDuel sportsbook for example is giving new users $200 in bonus bets for simply creating an account and winning their first bet of at least $5 wagered. Be sure to wager the $5 on a heavy favorite immediately after signing up, maximizing your chances of winning and collecting the $200 in bonus bets.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Corbin Burnes vs. Ryan Pepiot (6:50 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel

With the current AL East favorite New York Yankees suffering a big loss of production with the injury to Juan Soto, now is the time for the Baltimore Orioles to build some momentum and dethrone them for the top spot of the division standings. The issue for the Orioles is that their offensive production has failed to match their elite defensive production, struggling to string together consistent performances.

Worse yet for the Orioles, negative regression looms large for their offense as they rank below league average in On Base Percentage, middle of the pack in Team Total Hits, but above average in Runs Scored and RBIs. That indicates that they are maximizing their minimal scoring chances at an unsustainable rate, now being prone to going through a scoring lull with runners struggling to get into scoring position.

Speaking of regression, positive regression looms large for the Rays pitcher Ryan Pepiot as he takes the mound against the struggling Orioles offense. Opposing offenses have maximized their minimal scoring chances against Pepiot as he has an ERA of 3.96, an impressive WHIP of 0.955, and just 36 Hits Allowed. With the Orioles batters struggling to get on base, that minimizes the potential chance of an early run being scored with no one in scoring position.

As for an Orioles defense that ranks fourth in Defensive Efficiency, it should be business as usual with Corbin Burnes taking the mound as he is in a position to continue to build his case for the AL Cy Young award. Burnes has been dominant this season, possessing an ERA of 2.26 and a WHIP of 1.017, and now faces off against a Rays offense that ranks well below league average in Team Total Hits, On Base Percentage, Total Runs Scored, and RBIs.

Bet on Under 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel 

Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners - Erick Fedde vs. Logan Gilbert (9:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-148) at FanDuel

For a team with a comfortable lead at the top of the AL West, the Seattle Mariners are flirting with danger of losing their spot at the top of the standings as their offense is severely anemic as they currently rank well below league average in Team Total Hits, On Base Percentage, RBIs, and Total Runs Scored. Their defense makes up for a majority of their lack of production, ranking third overall in Defensive Efficiency.

Their elite defense will be in a position to bottle up a White Sox offense that is even worse across the previously listed offensive metrics. Especially with Logan Gilbert taking the mound as he has excelled at minimizing scoring opportunities. Gilbert comes into the contest with an ERA of 3.12, a WHIP of 0.980, 76 Total Strikeouts, 20 Batters Walked, 62 Hits Allowed, and 29 Earned Runs Against in 13 games played.

As for the White Sox, they roll out Erick Fedde who has been one of the very few productive players for the ball club at this point of the season. His play has helped mask a defense that ranks bottom seven in Defensive Efficiency and is more than capable of giving the Mariners struggling offense fits early in the contest. Fedde takes the mound with an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.184.

Bet on Under 0.5 Run (-148) at FanDuel 

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