Best NRFI Bets Today: Continue to Back Rookie of the Year Favorite Paul Skenes

Written by: Kody Malstrom
Published July 5, 2024
5 min read
Best NRFI Bets Today 2024 07 05 Pirates Paul Skenes

Since taking full command of first place on the oddsboard for the NL Rookie of the Year award, Paul Skenes continues to shut down opposing offenses with his elite blend of power and accuracy. After targeting his matchup against the Mets, we turn our focus towards the Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds as both offenses continue to severely underwhelm this season.

For more information about the NRFI market and what factors into them being worth a wager, check out our breakdown of Daily No Run First Inning.

When looking to make a wager on a NRFI, it’s vital to have as many sportsbooks as you can get in order to line shop the very volatile market. Each sportsbook also has their own unique signup bonus, giving new users a boost to their bankroll to wager with during the MLB season.

FanDuel Sportsbook for example is giving new users $150 in bonus bets for simply creating an account and winning their first bet of at least $5 wagered. Be sure to wager the $5 on a heavy favorite or alt line immediately after signing up, maximizing your chances of winning and collecting the $150 in bonus bets.

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New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Luis Severino vs. Paul Skenes (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at FanDuel

Since making his first start in the middle of the season, Paul Skenes has wasted no time in his efforts to take control of first place on the oddsboard for the NL Rookie of the Year award. While Shota Imanaga’s cold stretch helped thrust Skenes into full control of first, it’s been Skenes dominant level of play that has kept his name as the heavy favorite to win the prestigious award.

While his production alone has not been enough to turn the Pittsburgh Pirates into a well rounded contender, his presence on the mound has helped mask his back ends lowly mark in Defensive Efficiency. Skenes strikeouts out at a very high rate while minimizing the amount of opposing scoring opportunities, taking the mound with an ERA of 2.06, a WHIP of 1.032, a FIP of 1.60, 70 Total Strikeouts, 44 Hits Allowed, and 12 Earned Runs Against in 9 games played.

Every bit of his offensive production will be needed against a New York Mets offense that has seemingly come back to life after a sluggish start to their season, now ranking well above league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. They field plenty of powerful bats at the top of their batting order, including former league leading Home Run leader Pete Alonso.

While the Mets offense has rounded back into form and has played a major role in their leap up the NL East division standings, their defense continues to rank below league average in Defensive Efficiency. Starting pitcher Luis Severino has been a steady source of competitive production for them with a WHIP of 1.161, now getting the benefit of throwing against a Pirates offense that ranks near dead last in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics.

Bet on Under 0.5 Run (-115) at FanDuel 

Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reese Olson vs. Carson Spiers (7:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-105) at FanDuel

After a hot stretch of play to end their 2023 campaign, both the Tigers and Reds entered the year expected to take the next step forward with their offensive production. Especially as both units are built around a young core, naturally progressing as they near their prime. The opposite has held to be true as both offenses rank well below league average in Team Total Hits, RBI, Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage.

The Tigers offensive woes have been massively disappointing, especially now that they field one of the more lethal pitching staffs in the league. Reese Olson has played a key role in their high marks in Team Total Pitching ERA, taking the mound with an ERA of 3.32, a WHIP of 1.198, and a FIP of 2.90. Expect Olson to continue to expose the Reds lack of contact ability, throwing against a unit that ranks second to last in Team Total Hits.

As for the Reds, they roll out rotational pitcher Carson Spiers who gets the benefit of facing off against a unproductive offense while his back end ranks top-10 in Defensive Efficiency. Carson has proven to be a reliable arm for the Reds pitching staff in his minimal appearances so far this season, taking the mound with an ERA of 3.13, a WHIP of 1.152, a FIP of 2.68, 36 Hits Allowed, and 13 Earned Runs Against in 8 games played.

Bet on Under 0.5 Run (-105) at FanDuel 


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Kody Malstrom

Sports Betting Analyst

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Kody Malstrom is a sports betting journalist with six years of writing experience in the industry. He covers an abundance of sports, including College Football, NFL, College Basketball, NBA, and more. Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a devoted Detroit Sports fan and spends his Sundays rooting for the Detroit Lions while telling himself this year is the year they win it all. When not staring at betting markets, Kody spends his free time at the beach in the summer or snowboarding in the winter.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Finance
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
6 years
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