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This is our favorite under of the day. While both offenses have been playing well, this is an underrated pitching matchup. Both starters are coming off fantastic games and will now face off in American Family Field for the first time. This, combined with the fact that the Brewers don’t score many first-inning runs, is why we love the under here.
Wade Miley (2-1, 1.50 ERA) has been among the best pitchers to open the 2023 season. His numbers have been impressive, but injuries have hampered him over the last few years. However, when he has been healthy, Miley is a solid starter. The veteran has posted an ERA under four in his previous two healthy seasons. He doesn’t strike out many batters but is excellent at getting hitters to make mistakes. Miley has a history of success in Milwaukee, and this Red Sox team hasn’t seen him. Expect to see him cruise through at least the first inning tomorrow.
Garret Whitlock (1-1, 4.50 ERA) is a young arm that Boston hopes will become an essential part of their rotation. He struggled in his first start against the Rays but was lights out against the Angels on Sunday. He threw seven innings and allowed just one run on three hits. Whitlock has never faced the Brewers, meaning they will need some time to figure him out. Expect a 1-2-3 first inning for Whitlock.
Over 0.5 runs (-104 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Coming into the season, this looked like the easiest under NRFI bet of the season, despite these loaded offenses. Alek Manoah (1-1, 6398 ERA) and Gerrit Cole (4-0, 0.95 ERA) were expected to be two of the top starters in the AL. That is no longer the case for Manoah, who appears to have significantly regressed in his third season.
Manoah has been unable to miss bats and has given up a run in the first inning in two of his four games this season. His control has been a significant issue, as he owns a 1.97 WHIP and has walked 13 batters in his last 16 innings. While the 25-year-old was outstanding against the Yankees last season, it seems opposing teams may be figuring him out.
Conversely, the Yankee's offense is coming alive in a big way. After a mediocre start, they are starting to score more consistently. In their series against the Angels, they scored in the first inning of two games (7 runs total) while allowing the Angels to score in the first of the third game. Add all that up, and you have an easy over NRFI bet.
Betting on A’s Shintaro Fujinami has been scary, but he has been effective in the first inning. He has not yielded a first-inning run in his three starts this season. On top of that, Fujinami has shown improvement in each of his starts. In his last outing, he allowed three runs on four hits against the Mets, earning his first career quality start. Combine that with the fact that it’s taking teams once through the lineup to figure him out, and you have a recipe for a quiet first inning.
The Rangers have been jumping on teams early all season. Their offense has been deadly, even without Corey Seager. We expect them to beat up Shintaro as the game goes on, but they don’t have the kind of hitters that will be able to figure him out early. With limited MLB tapes to study, expect the Rangers to take at least two innings to figure out the former Japan star.
Conversely, the A’s have the worst offense in the league. They stepped up last night but still rank at the bottom of most offensive categories. The lineup is filled with journeymen and AAA players, so don’t expect them to figure out Andrew Heaney (1-1, 4.97 ERA). The Rangers starte has given up zero runs and four hits in his last ten innings pitched.
Max Heering graduated from the University of Kansas Sport Management program in May 2020. Max follows and writes about the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, MLS, college football, and college basketball. In his free time, you can catch Max draining threes on the basketball court. Email: [email protected]More info on Max Heering
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