Best NRFI Bets This Weekend | May 13-14

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox - RHP Brandon Bielak (HOU) vs RHP Dylan Cease (CHW)

My Pick: Over 0.5 Runs (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Our first NRFI bet of the weekend features the Houston Astros and the Chicago White Sox. While both offenses have underwhelmed this season, we love their chances of scoring a run in the first inning today. They have done so in two of their four meetings this season, and they will have a pitching matchup today that has us believing they will do so again. 

Brandon Bielak (0-1, 4.15 ERA) will be taking the mound for Houston tonight. The 27-year-old made his season debut on May 1 after being called into action when the Astros lost two starters to injury. It hasn’t been great, with both starts failing to go through the fifth inning. His last start was his worst, going 4 ⅔ innings and allowing ten hits and three runs (two earned). In his two starts, he has pitched a combined 8 ⅔ innings, giving up nine runs and five walks. While Chicago’s offense isn’t going to dominate anyone, we love their chances to get damage early against the former reliever today.

Dylan Cease (2-2, 5.58 ERA) will get the start for the Sox tonight. The ace was dominant to start the season but has been bad over his last four starts. He has thrown a combined 18 innings during that stretch, allowing 20 earned runs and 29 hits. He allowed a run to score in the first inning in two of those starts but found himself in trouble early in each game. That includes his last start against the lowly Royals, where he gave up a total of seven earned runs over four innings. The Astros' bats have been cold, but they have the talent at the top of the order to do some serious damage. Expect a big number in the first inning today.

Texas Rangers vs Oakland A’s - RHP Jon Gray (TEX) vs LHP JP Sears (OAK)

My Pick: Under 0.5 Runs (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

This is our favorite bet of the weekend. While the game features one of the best offenses in the league against one of the worst pitching staffs, we see the first inning being quiet for a couple of reasons. The first is Rangers pitcher Jon Gray (2-1, 3.82 ERA), who has been solid this season. He started against the A’s once this season and had a rough outing, but he dominated through the first four innings. Given the state of Oakland’s offense, we don’t see that changing today.

Another reason we love this bet is A’s starter JP Sears (0-3, 5.54 ERA). While those numbers may lead people to believe he will struggle against this incredible Texas offense, they don’t tell the whole story. The Oakland starter has made seven starts this season and has been hit hard, but he has surrendered a run in the first inning just once. Like Gray, he has found himself getting into trouble later after the first time through the order, as teams begin to figure him out. That will work in his favor today.

As good as the Rangers have been at the plate, their scoring has been down lately. On top of that, they have not scored in the first inning in their previous eight games. We see that trend continuing tonight, though we expect them to do much damage against Sears and the A’s bullpen later in the game.

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers - RHP Bryce Miller (SEA) vs RHP Alex Faedo (DET)

My Pick: Under 0.5 Runs

Our last NRFI bet of the weekend comes from the AL West. The game features two bottom-ten offenses in the league with a solid pitching matchup on the mound. We expected that from Detroit, but it was a surprise to see it from Seattle. Their lineup has a ton of talent, but they have been unable to generate runs all season consistently. That makes this NRFI bet all the more appealing, especially considering the pitchers on the mound. 

Rookie Bryce Miller (1-0, 0.75 ERA) will take the hill for the Mariners tonight. He has been incredible this season, throwing a combined 12 innings over two starts, allowing just four hits and one run. That includes his start last week against defending the World Series Champion Houston Astros. He looks like a veteran on the mound, and we expect him to overwhelm this Tigers lineup today.

Alex Faedo (0-0, 3.86 ERA) will get the start for the Tigers today. He made just one start this season, allowing three runs (2 earned) and two home runs over 4 ⅔ innings. It wasn’t pretty, but he will have an advantage today as he faces a Mariners lineup that has struggled. They have been getting better, but most of their offense is being generated in the middle of these games, leading to many quiet first innings. Expect to see that trend continue today.