Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks

Written by: Tony Garcia
Updated October 14, 2022
6 min read
Red Sox Vs Tigers Predictions
  • Top-end pitching matchup as Red Sox make push division title
  • Tigers quietly showing the future is now
  • X-factors to watch on both sides

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Odds

Odds presented by: DraftKings Sportsbook

Team Run Spread Money Line Total
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
O 9 (-110)
Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-125)
U 9 (-110)

Trends to Watch

  • Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record
  • Red Sox are 21-9 in their last 30 games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 road games
  • Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 overall
  • Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Under is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
  • Red Sox are 7-2 in the last 9 head-to-head meetings
  • Red Sox are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit
  • Tigers are 12-2 in their last 14 home games
  • Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter
  • Tigers are 13-3 in their last 16 Wednesday games
  • Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 overall
  • Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers Predictions and Picks

Boston’s lineup is as deep as it gets, but Casey Mize and the Tigers are rolling at home right now. Detroit is 6-2 in Mize’s last eight starts and now that he’s off his pitch count again he’s looking for another strong outing. We will take the upset and go Tigers money line.

Our Picks:

Detroit Tigres Money Line (+130)

Garcia’s 2021 record: (41-39-2)

How to Watch Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Information
Teams Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers
Location Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Time Wednesday, August 4, 7:10  p.m. EST
How to watch Bally Sports Detroit, New England Sports Network, MLB.TV

Pitching Matchup Worth Watching

The Tigers are in the bottom half of the league in most pitching categories including quality starts (16th), batting average against (20th), WHIP (21st) and ERA (22nd).

Boston too has been in the bottom half of baseball in all of them, starting with ERA (16th), quality starts (23rd), WHIP (25th) and batting average against (27th).

But they both have the men with winning records on the mound Wednesday when Eduardo Rodriguez (7-6) and Casey Mize (6-5) square off.

Rodriguez, however, hasn’t been nearly as good as his record suggests — he has a 5.60 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, both of which would rank near the bottom of the league if he had thrown enough innings to qualify.

He’s been a mixed bag in recent starts — in his past 10 outings he’s given up 4+ runs four times and thrown four quality starts — so it seems to be all of it or none of iti with Rodriguez this season.

Mize on the other hand is the ace of the future (or really of the now, for the Tigers). He’s young and still perfecting his craft, but the former No. 1 overall pick has lived up to the billing in his first full season in the big leagues and finds himself squarely in the Rookie of the Year conversation.

Mize was on an inning restriction for a few starts on either side of the All-Star break (manager AJ Hinch didn’t want to have to shut him down early in September) but he should be full go again on Wednesday.

Mize ranks in the top 25 in all of baseball with a 3.41 ERA (23rd) and 1.11 WHIP (18th) and he was sensational in his last outing when he got to pull the training wheels off: seven innings, no runs, four runs, two hits and two strikeouts in a 6-2 win over the Orioles.

Don’t Look Now, But The Tigers Are Coming

If you thought the Tigers — after starting the season 8-23 and looking every bit as bad as that during a 2-15 stretch from the end of April to early May — were going to have three consecutive winning months raise your hand.

Now any of you with your hand up, but it down and tell the truth. Nobody could have seen this coming, not even the largest of Tigers optimists.

But still, despite missing top two coming into the season (Matt Boyd and Spencer Turnbull who has already thrown a no-hitter this year) for multiple months each, the Tigers keep on winning and it’s in large part due to the youth.

We mentioned how Mize was in the Rookie of the Year race? He’s going against two, or maybe even three of his teammates. Catcher Eric Haase just won American League Rookie of the Month in July because he doesn’t stop mashing. Akil Baddoo is the spark plug of this offense and is currently a top-three favorite for AL ROY honors.

And Tarik Skubal, a lefty who has all the makings of becoming an ace once he learns how to attack big league hitters.

That’s not to mention there’s still two top-10 prospects in all of baseball waiting in Double-A Erie who are set to come up some time in 2022. Why yes, after a number of years of misery, the future for Detroit looks very bright indeed.

X-factors to Watch

Miguel Cabrera has been far from vintage this season — he was hitting .199 and battling injuries as recently as June 13th — but over the last nearly two months he’s raised his average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS all by between 40 and 100 points.

Cabrera had another nice performance last night — he went 2-of-4 including the 498th home run of his career. Over the last seven games, Cabrera has been red-hot, going 11-of-23 with four home runs and eight RBIs. Cabrera is not the player he once was, but now just two home runs away from the 500 mark and the crowd going crazy every time he comes to the plate, he’s an x-factor just for the juice he provides to this lineup when he’s right.

For the Red Sox we’re going to focus on somebody who became a star when he was in Detroit but has struggled mightily the last week, but even to some degree for months.

J.D. Martinez 2-of-25 with one run and no extra base hits the last week — good for a 0.80 batting average, 0.80 OBP and 0.80 slugging percentage. Yikes.

Since May 15th, Martinez’s batting average has gone from .345 to .285, his OBP has gone from .424 to 352 and his OPS has gone from 1.038 to .880.

He had 10 home runs in April alone — and has just 10 home runs since. He has to get going again for Boston to compete for the World Series.

That said, he was 2-of-3 last night, a sign that he may be turning the corner.

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Tony Garcia

Sports Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Tony writes about baseball for after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.
Nationality: American
Education: M.A. in Journalism
Favourite Sportsbook: ClutchBet Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
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