World Series Game Four: Astros in Desperate Need of a Win on the Road

• The Philadelphia Phillies won Games One and Two of this series. 

• The Houston Astros won Game Two of this series.

• The Astros are averaging less than four runs a game in the World Series.

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Odds Taken from DraftKings Sportsbook

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks

Houston Astros beat Philadelphia Phillies 5-3

Astros cover the spread, Over 7.5 runs.

Moneyline Analysis

The 2022 World Series has taken an interesting turn. The Astros have been favored to win all three games but are down 2-1 and in desperate need of a win.

Houston could not do anything right in Game Three and were shut out 7-0. Their lineup struggled at the plate, and their starter, Lance McCullers Jr., was not performing well at the mound. In fact, McCullers pitched so poorly that he ended with his worst start of the season.

The Phillies lineup gave McCullers immediate problems. Bryce Harper smashed a two-run home run over the right field fence that sent in Kyle Schwarber in the first inning. The second inning was just as bad for McCullers. He gave up solo home runs to Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh. Before you knew it, the Astros were down 4-0. 

McCullers calmed down for the third and fourth inning but ran into some issues in the fifth. He got the first out, but then Brandon Marsh stepped up to the plate and hit a single. Marsh was followed by Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber wasted no time and hit a 443-foot homer to center field to push to lead the lead to six. In case that was not enough, Rhys Hoskins was up next and hit a solo home run. McCullers was pulled after that, and the Phillies won 7-0.

There is one positive Houston should be taking from this game, and that would be their bullpen. The bullpen pitched almost five innings and did not give up a single run.

The Astros lineup did not have what it took yesterday. However, there is a reason they finished the season with the best American League record and had not lost a Playoff game up until the World Series. They have excellent pitching, but they also have great hitting. Houston averaged over 4.5 runs a game this year and had five hitters with a WAR over 4.0. Those numbers are indicative of arguably the best lineup in the American League. Houston needs to forget about yesterday and will return to form today.

Cristian Javier will take the mound for the Astros. Javier has made two Playoff appearances (one start) and has been excellent. He has thrown 6⅔ innings and only given up one run on two hits. It is unlikely he will pitch past five innings, but the Dominican hurler will make life difficult for this Phillies lineup.

The Phillies lineup is doing everything right. They are scoring loads of runs and have a lot of different players contributing. I do not need to go into individual players’ stats, but I will say this. If the Phillies keep seeing well-rounded performances from their lineup, they will win the World Series.

Aaron Nola will take the hill for the Phillies. Nola had a solid regular season but has not been good in the Playoffs. The righty is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA. In his previous two starts, he has given up 11 earned runs. However, he can be dominant on the mound. He just needs to flip the switch. If he does, the Phillies have this game in the bag.

Over/Under Analysis

The over/under for this game is placed at 7.5 runs. There will be some runs scored in this game but less than 7.5. Bet on the under.

This may be controversial, but I expect the Astros lineup to return to form today. They still have a bunch of excellent hitters and just had an off day yesterday. However, it is incredibly rare for this Astros’ lineup to have two off days in a row.

The Astros will face a struggling Aaron Nola today. They will score four runs off him and likely knock him out in the sixth inning. Houston will add an insurance run off the bullpen and finish with a total of five.

I am confident the Astros will hit well today, but the Phillies lineup is a little harder to read. Their front half of the lineup is outstanding, but I do not see them hitting well two games in a row. Philadelphia might have one of the most exciting lineups in baseball, but this will not be their day.

The Phillies will go against Cristian Javier today. It is hard to read Javier because he has only pitched 6⅔ inning in the Playoffs. In addition, he has started once this postseason and  made one appearance out of the bullpen. Even though his Playoff appearances have been limited, Javier will pitch well tonight. He finished the season with a 2.54 ERA and was a force on the mound. The Phillies will only score two runs against him, and that will be it.

Head-to-Head: Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros

How To Watch Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies

• What - Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies

• Where - Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

• When - Wednesday, November 2, 8:03 PM EST

• How to Watch - FOX