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New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions, Odds, Picks

Written by: Tony Garcia
Updated October 14, 2022
5 min read
  • Mets have pitching edge in battle of the vets
  • Will game one dictate the entire series?
  • X-factors to watch

Mets vs Phillies Odds

Mets Vs Phillies May 6

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New York at Philadelphia Prediction and Picks

It’s hard to imagine game one not affecting the psyche of both teams headed into game two after the Mets had the largest ninth-inning comeback of any team in baseball this season. Now, New York has one of its two aces on the mound in Max Scherzer, but he’s already seen the Phillies twice this season, including five days ago, so that does neutralize his ability a little. Still, with the mojo going that way, you have to take the Mets to cover the spread.

Mets cover the spread -1.5 (+125)

Mets vs Phillies Betting Trend To Watch (As of 5.4)

  • Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 Friday games
  • Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
  • Mets are 16-5 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Mets are 6-2 in their last 8 road games
  • Mets are 19-7 in their last 26 games as a favorite
  • Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road favorite
  • Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 overall
  • Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 vs. National League East
  • Under is 9-2-2 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings
  • Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 Friday games
  • Phillies are 2-7 in their last 9 vs. National League East
  • Phillies are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
  • Phillies are 2-11 in their last 13 games as an underdog
  • Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a home underdog

Garcia’s 2021 record: (11-6)

Battle of the Veterans on the Mound

Two pitchers who have been around the block will square off Friday night when the Mets’ Max Scherzer faces the Phillies’ Kyle Gibson.

Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young award winner finished third in the voting in 2021, and even at 37 years old, he shows no signs of slowing down. He’s already faced Philadelphia twice thiis season and while New York picked up wins in both contests, he didn’t have his A game in either contest.

The first time he only gave up one run, but he lasted just five innings and allowed eight base runners (five hits and three walks). Last time out, he surrendered a season-high four earned runs in six innings but struck out nine batters.

On the season, he’s an unblemished 4-0, with a 2.61 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and is second in the big leagues with 42 strikeouts in 31 innings.

Gibson is 34-years-old himself and in year 10 of a career that’s been quite decent. He comes off maybe the best season of his career, where he went 10-9 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.23 ERA across 30 starts with the Rangers (19) and Phillies (12).

So far this season, he’s been even better than that. In five starts, Gibson is 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts in 27.2 innings. Gibson didn’t factor in the decision his last time out vs. New York, but he did throw 4.1 shutout innings in a 4-1 victory for Philadelphia.

Can Phillies Shake Off Collapse?

Game one was an abject disaster for Philadelphia.

Aaron Nola, their ace, was unhittable, giving up just one run on three hits in seven innings.  But the bullpen absolutely imploded. James Norwood and Corey Knebel gave up a combined EIGHT hits in the ninth inning (single, home run, double, single, single, double, single, double) blowing a 7-1 lead as New York came all the way back to win 8-7.

On the flipside, after starter Taijuan Walker gave up six runs in four innings, the Mets bullpen held Philadelphia to one run over the next five.

The Phillies have now lost four games in a row, but without question that was the most painful loss of the season. For New York, it’s the latest comeback in a season of ninth-inning comebacks as the Mets improve to 19-9 on the season and 10-4 away from Citi Field.

X-factors to Watch

Everybody knows Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos are the big bats in the middle of the lineup for the Phillies, but they will need Jean Segura to get going if they want to make a run at the postseason. Thursday may have been a good start toward exactly that after he went 3-for-4 with an RBI in game one.

For the Mets, we’re going to watch Starling Marte, who went just 2-for-13 the last time he faced the Phillies and was just 5-for-25 against them this season. He flipped that script in game one, going 3-for-5 with two runs scored and two RBIs (including a home run).

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How to watch New York vs Philadelphia

Mets vs Phillies Information
Teams New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Location Citizens Bank Ballpark, Philadelphia, PA
Time Friday, May 6, 7:05  p.m. EST
How to watch SportsNet New York, MLB Extra Innings
Image for Tony Garcia

Tony Garcia

Sports Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.
Nationality: American
Education: M.A. in Journalism
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