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This is one of our favorite bets this week, as we have a perfect setting for a high-scoring game. We love the pitching matchup here as Cortes has been struggling, while Wells was shelled by the Yankees earlier this season. That, combined with the fact that these teams are both in the top ten in runs scored, has us believing this game will easily surpass the 8.5 run mark.
The Orioles (31-17) have won five of their last seven games but fell to the Yankees last night. Scoring has not been an issue, as they have the ninth most runs (240) and tenth most home runs (58). Instead, their pitching faltered last night, allowing the Yankees to score six runs. While we aren’t sure if they’ll be able to get a win tonight, we do know that they have gone over 8.5 runs in their previous three games. We expect that to continue tonight, especially with these pitchers on the mound.
Tyler Wells (3-1, 2.94 ERA) will take the mound for Baltimore tonight. While he had ERAs over four in his first two seasons, the starter has looked much sharper in 2023. However, he was one big blemish on his record, which came against the Yankees. Wells gave up six hits, four runs, and two home runs in that start, taking the loss. While he has succeeded against other opponents, we think the Yankees’ confidence against Wells will lead to many runs tonight.
The Orioles’ offense has been excellent this season, outperforming expectations from the offseason. They have been led by Ryan Mountcastle (.237 Ba, 10 HR, 37 RBI), Cedric Mullins (.282 BA, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 13 SB), and Adley Rutschman (.270 BA, 7 HR, 25 RBI). We believe all three will be in for a good night, especially Rutschman. The young catcher owns a .556 average against Cortes, and we expect him to keep that trend going tonight.
The Yankees (30-20) have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning six of their last seven games. The streak could not have come at a better time, as their record dropped to 18-17 after losing a pivotal series to the Rays earlier this month. This team now looks like the one we expected to see, averaging 5.6 runs over their last ten games. That is a significant number, and we expect that to continue with Wells on the mound tonight.
Nestor Cortes (4-2, 5.21) will get the start for the Yankees tonight. The veteran has looked awful for most of the season, posting a 5.87 ERA in three starts this month. He was ok against Baltimore earlier this season, allowing two runs over 5 ⅓ innings. We don’t think he’ll fare that well tonight against a hot Baltimore offense.
The Yankees' offense has been great lately, and they have been improving as the season progresses. They now rank in the top ten in most offensive categories and are now desperately searching for reliable pitching. They will face a familiar face tonight, and no one will be happier to see him than Aaron Judge. The red-hot Yankee center fielder has met Wells 17 times, putting up a .471 batting average and three home runs. Considering Judge has been on a power surge of late, we expect at least one from him tonight.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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