San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions, Odds, Picks

• Winning pitchers take the mound
• Offense should be no problem for these two
• X-factors to watch

Padres vs Phillies Odds

Padres vs Phillies Prediction and Picks

Both pitchers have winning records but neither has been as good as those records would indicate, with ERAs north of 4.10. Both teams have struggled to string wins together this year and the Padres have been better away from home (13-7) than the Phillies have at home (9-10).

Picks:

Padres Moneyline

Garcia’s 2021 record: (13-8)

Betting Trends to Watch (as of 5.18)

• Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog
• Padres are 10-3 in their last 13 road games vs a team with a losing record
• Padres are 9-3 in their last 12 road games
• Padres are 15-6 in their last 21 vs a team with a losing record
• Padres are 18-8 in their last 26 overall
• Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs a right-handed starter
• Over is 5-1 in Padres last 6 overall
• Over is 10-2 in Padres last 12 road games
• Over is 14-3 in Padres last 17 road games vs a team with a losing record
• Over is 8-2 in Padres last 10 road games vs a right-handed starter
• Under is 7-2 in the last 9 head-to-head meetings
• Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings head-to-head in Philadelphia
• Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. National League West
• Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs a right-handed starter
• Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite
• Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home favorite
• Over is 8-2 in Phillies last 10 games as a favorite
• Over is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 games as a home favorite
• Over is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 Thursday games

Veterans Have Winning Records, Numbers Aren’t as Pretty

Yu Darvish is on the mound for the Padres while Kye Gibson will counter for the Phillies. Both have 3-1 records, but their secondary numbers tell a different story.

Starting with Darvish, he’s really been very good or quite poor in his stars without a lot of in between. Five of his seven starts have been quality starts, twice going six innings or more and giving up one hit or fewer.

However in his other two starts, he gave up a combined 13 earned runs in 7.1 innings. That’s why his ERA has ballooned to 4.62, though his WHIP sits at a respectable 1.18.

If there is reason for concern, it’s that his strikeouts are down of late (just 12 in his last 18.2 innings of work) but his hits allowed are up, 22 during that same time frame.

As for Gibson, his numbers are almost identical. The 34-year-old veteran has a 4.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 37.1 innings of work. He has three quality stars in his seven outings, but also has three outings where he failed to make it out of the fifth inning.

HIs worst of the season came his last time out against the Dodgers, when he allowed six runs on eight hits in 3.2 innings while striking out a season-low one batter. Both will have their hands full against potent offenses.

Offenses Should Have Success

The Padres offense has been in the middle of the pack this year while the Phillies are near the top of the MLB in almost every statistical category.

Philadelphia ranks No.2 in average (.253), No. 2 in slugging (.424), No. 3 in total bases (514), No. 5 in OPS (.739), No. 6 in runs (172) and No. 8 in OBP (.315).

Bryce Harper, dealing with injuries and all, has led the way with nine home runs and 27 RBIs while hitting .305 with a .995 OPS, but he hasn’t had to do it alone.

Nick Castellanos, Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, Didi Gregorious and J.T. Realmuto all have OBP’s better than .300, which is what makes this team so deep.

San Diego is still missing its star shortstop in Fernando Tatis Jr. and it’s showing.

The Padres batting average (.228) is 20th in the league, and OPS (.676) is 19th. If there is a saving grace, it’s that the team is third in the league in walks, which helps them rank No. 10 in the MLB in OBP.

X-factors to Watch

The x-factor in this game for Philadelphia is going to be somebody who has had an up-and-down year in the city of brotherly love and that’s Bohm. The third baseman has done his best work against right-handed pitching this year, batting .342 with a .378 OBP.

For San Diego, we’re looking at Eric Hosmer, who has been one of the best Padres players when he’s away from Petco Park. On the road, Hosmer is batting .338 with three home runs, 16 RBIs, a team-high 35 bases and a .442 OBP.

How to Watch Padres vs Phillies