World Series Game One: Verlander Gets the Nod for the Astros

• The Philadelphia Phillies have only lost two Playoff games.

• The Houston Astros are undefeated in the Playoffs.

• The Astros were 2-1 against the Phillies this season.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Odds

Odds Taken from DraftKings Sportsbook

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Picks

Houston Astros beat Philadelphia Phillies 4-3

Phillies cover the spread, Over 6.5 runs.

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Moneyline Analysis

The World Series is finally upon us, and Game One is tonight. The Philadelphia Phillies will represent the National League, and the Houston Astros will represent the American League. Interestingly, these teams faced each other earlier this month in the last series of the regular season. The Astros had the upper hand and won the series 2-1.

The Phillies had a decent regular season, but their Playoff run could be described as a Cinderella story. Philadelphia took the final Wild Card spot and only finished the year with 87 wins. However, the Playoffs has been a completely different story for them. They swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card Series and beat the Atlanta Braves in four in the NLDS. People thought they would have struggled a little more in the NLCS against the San Diego Padres, but the Phils’ ran through them and beat them in five games.

The Phillies have an impressive squad, but much of their postseason offense is coming from Bryce Harper. Harper is a man on a mission and leading his team in almost every major statistical category. However, they will face their most challenging mission yet in the Astros and must depend on other players. Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto could be some of those players, but they need to step up right now. Hoskins has shown potential and has 11 RBIs, but he also has a .182 average and 14 strikeouts in 11 games. Castellanos and Realmuto also have potential but only have nine combined RBIs. They had great regular seasons but need to turn it around in this series.

The Phillies' rotation was solid during the season but even better in the Playoffs. Aaron Nola will get the start today. Nola has been good in the Playoffs but not their best starter (that award goes to Zack Wheeler). Nola has started three Playoff games and has a 2-1 record. He is averaging over one strikeout an inning and has a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. These numbers are very good but not as good as his opponent’s.

Is anyone surprised the Astros are in the World Series? They are contenders every season and made a World Series appearance last year. Houston had an outstanding regular season and finished with the best record in the American League. They had 106 wins and finished with a 16-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West. The Astros are yet to lose a game in the Playoffs. They swept the Mariners in three close ALDS games and swept the New York Yankees in some hard-fought ALCS battles. 

The Astros has sputtered at times in the Playoffs. There have been games where they have scored eight runs and games where they have scored one run. However, they have the best lineup in the American League and all the pieces to destroy opposing pitchers. Jeremy Pena has been a star in the Playoffs. The rookie was named the ALCS MVP and currently has a .303 average. Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez have also played huge roles in this Astros’ lineup. Bregman has seven RBIs and has only struck out twice in seven games. Alvarez has a .241 average but a .371 OBP. Alvarez just knows how to get on base. As great as these three players have been, I would be remiss if I did not mention Jose Altuve. Altuve had an excellent regular season but has a .094 average in the Playoffs. He needs to return to form and help his team when it matters most.

Justin Verlander will take the hill for the Astros tonight. Verlander had a difficult first Playoff start but dominated in his previous one. He threw six innings against the Yankees and only gave up one run on three hits.

The Astros have better pitching and home-field advantage, so they will take Game One.

Over/Under Analysis

The over/under is placed quite low at 6.5 runs. I do not expect a lot of scoring, but I would bet on the over. 

The Phillies will lose this game, but they will manage to get one or two runs off Justin Verlander and another one or two off the Astros’ bullpen. They have a lot of offensive weapons and are averaging over five runs a game in the Playoffs, so it is not difficult to see them scoring three today.

The Astros have a better lineup than the Phillies and have the home crowd on their side. I do not expect them to start scoring immediately, but they will score at least two runs off Aaron Nola and a couple more off the Phillies’ bullpen. The Astros lineup is full of excellent hitters, and they can also go off and provide a lot of runs.

Head-to-Head: Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros

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