Image for Tony Garcia Tony Garcia - October 14, 2022

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Predictions, Odds & Picks

Tampa Bay Rays Vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick
  • Tampa looks to secure home field, Jays make a playoff push
  • Pitching matchup favors Jays 
  • X-factors to watch

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Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds

Odds presented by: DraftKings Sportsbook

Team Run Spread Money Line Total
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (+130)
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+150
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O 9 (-110)
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Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-110)
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-170
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U 9 (-110)
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Predictions and Picks

Sometimes picking a game doesn’t need to be hard. The Rays have lost 4 of 6 while prior to yesterday the Jays looked like they couldn’t be stopped. They still kind of have that feel. Not to mention, the Blue Jays have the pitching advantage in this matchup. Wacha hasn’t been reliable enough for me, even if the Rays are one of the two or three scrappiest, toughest teams to beat in all of baseball. We like Toronto on the money line, to cover the spread and the under.

Garcia’s 2021 record: (54-46-2)

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Trends to Watch (As of 9.14)

  • Rays are 10-3 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record
  • Rays are 40-14 in their last 53 vs. American League East
  • Rays are 38-15 in their last 53 games on astroturf
  • Rays are 8-4 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record
  • Rays are 20-9 in their last 29 road games
  • Rays are 42-18 in their last 60 overall
  • Over is 11-2 in Rays last 13 games as an underdog
  • Over is 9-2 in Rays last 11 games as a road underdog
  • Rays are 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings in Toronto
  • Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite
  • Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite
  • Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. American League East
  • Blue Jays are 16-5 in their last 21 overall
  • Under is 11-3-1 in Blue Jays last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Under is 9-4 in Blue Jays last 13 home games
  • Under is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Under is 9-3 in Blue Jays last 12 games as a home favorite

Big Game for the Playoff Picture in the American League

For the first time in a long time, Toronto’s offense was tamed on Tuesday, falling 2-0 to Tampa as the Rays evened the series at one. With the loss, the Jays are now tied with the Yankees as the two Wild Card teams at 81-64, with Boston, Seattle and Oakland all close on their heels.

Toronto has a rather favorable schedule the rest of the way — with seven games left against the Twins and three games each against the Rays, Yankees, and Orioles.

Tampa Bay meanwhile, at 90-55, is nine games ahead of the rest of the AL East and inching closer towards a division title. Their schedule isn’t a gauntlet, but it is tougher than Toronto’s the rest of the way.

The Rays play four against the Tigers and then three each against the Blue Jays, Marlins, Astros, and Yankees to finish the year.

Wacha’s Been Trending, but Ray the Clear Favorite Here

After a stretch of four terrible starts, Michael Wacha has settled in nicely the past four outings for the Rays. It still remains to be seen what role he will play in October, but as a veteran, there’s no doubt his presence is a value add.

Over his past four starts, Wacha is 1-0 with a 3.13 ERA, and 28 strikeouts in 20.1 innings. Compared to the 18 runs he had given up over his past three starts, it’s a welcomed sight.

The fact he will have to go up against the hottest offense in baseball? Well, that’s a different problem.

On the other side, Robbie Ray has quite frankly been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball since the start of June. During the 19 starts during that span, Ray is 9-3 and has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in 18 of 19 outings.

He was even better than his recent averages in August, throwing six quality starts in six outings, giving up two runs or fewer in each game.

X-Factors to Watch

Ray doesn’t give up many hits for the Blue Jays, so to pick someone who has a good chance against him isn’t the easiest of tasks. But the man who seems most poised for success is catcher Mike Zunino.

Zunino is enjoying a career year and much of that success has happened against left-handed pitching. In 100 at-bats against lefties this year, Zunino is hitting .350 (35-of-100) with a .430 OBP and an incredible 14 home runs for a 1.320 OPS. For perspective, only one other player on the team has an OBP above .930 against lefties.

For Toronto it feels like there are no x-factors because all this team has been white-hot the past week, going 15-3 over its last 18 games.

The team is playing so well, in fact, we’re NOT PICKING AN X-FACTOR. Seven players on the team have an OPS over 1.000 the last week — all with a minimum of 12 at-bats.

The team had scored 72 runs in the eight games prior to yesterday (an average of nine per day), so the x-factor is the entire lineup. From the top to the bottom.

How to Watch Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Information
Teams Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
Location Rogers Centre, Toronto, Canada
Time Wednesday, Sept. 15, 3:07 p.m. EST
How to watch Bally Sports Sun, MLB.TV

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AUTHOR

Tony Garcia

188 Articles

Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.

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