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The books have Inter Miami winning this match, which comes as a bit of a surprise. The David Beckham-owned franchise have been making a lot of noise outside the field but struggling on it. They’ve been on the receiving end of a few batterings in recent weeks, whereas Austin FC have handed teams a battering in their last two league outings.
Of course, Inter Miami's last two matches were away from home against two of the best sides in the league, but the manner of the losses were quite startling. Austin FC, on the other hand, beat two decent sides: FC Dallas and Houston Dynamo, so they’re coming into this game in good form. Their record away from home isn’t great, but we think they have enough in the tank to get something out of this game.
There’s good value in picking Austin FC and even more value in picking a draw, but we think Austin FC are capable of getting all three points in this tie. Inter Miami will come good once Lionel Messi and Sergio Busquets join the side, but they’ll only join in a month’s time. Until then, they’ll not be a great pick for most games.
The two sides have faced each other on just two occasions: Austin FC got the better of Inter Miami 5-1 during their first meeting, whereas the second match ended in a 2-2 draw. The second match was a club friendly; it didn’t have much riding on it.
The first match occurred in March 2023. Austin FC were extremely clinical on the day, with five goals from eight shots. Sebastian Driussi opened the scoring in the 22nd minute before Julio Cascante added another four minutes later to give Austin a 2-0 lead. Driussi added another six minutes into the second half to make it 3-0 for the home side.
Leonardo Campana got one back for Inter Miami, but it didn’t stop Austin FC from adding two more; Ethan Finlay (64’ and 90’) got on the scoresheet twice to give Austin FC a 5-1 victory. Inter Miami took 13 shots to Austin FC’s eight and had 41% of the possession, which might suggest that they were a bit unlucky, but this doesn’t take the game state into consideration; Austin FC took their foot off the gas after going 2-0 within 26 minutes. It wouldn’t shock anyone if they do something similar this weekend.
Inter Miami succumbed to another heavy defeat on the weekend against Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia Union were all over Inter Miami in the first half and took a 3-0 lead via goals from Jakob Glesnes (14’), Julian Carranza (39’), and Leon Flach (45+4’).
Robert Taylor opened the account for Inter Miami in the 50th minute, but David Ruiz’s own goal in the 68th minute confirmed that this was not going to be Inter Miami’s day. Inter Miami had 70% of the possession and took nine shots to Philadelphia Union’s eight, but much like the last league meeting between Austin FC and Inter Miami, the match was over in the first half. Goals changed games, and it seems like Inter Miami conceded far too many in the early stages of a match.
Another Barcelona legend will be joining Inter Miami this summer: legendary defensive midfielder Sergio Busquets will officially join Inter Miami on July 1st and could make his debut for the club before Lionel Messi.
Messi is expected to make his first appearance in a month, but Busquets could make his first appearance a bit earlier. If the signing of Messi wasn’t certain to turn Inter Miami as favorites for the title, then the signing of Busquets will certainly confirm this. Sergio Busquets was one of the best defensive midfielders in Europe right until his last game for Barcelona.
The Spanish international was the best player in the Euro 2020 semifinals just two seasons back; even though he isn’t as athletic as he used to be, he’s still an exceptionally press-resistant player and one of the best passers of the ball in the world.
Busquets is another massive coup for the MLS, never mind Inter Miami. Busquets has been one of the most influential players of the last 20 years – so much so that the position he occupies on a field is often referred to as the ‘Busquets’ role. Many of the best players of the previous generation have moved to the Saudi Arabian league in recent months, so getting the likes of Busquets and Messi is massive for Inter Miami and the MLS.
This feels like a seismic period for European club football and club football in general. Many of the players moving to non-European leagues are still capable of playing for a top European club, but it seems like the financial rewards in the MLS and Saudi Arabia, along with the lack of media and fan pressure, are making these leagues a refuge for former stars.
Austin FC got their second-straight 3-0 league victory over the weekend against Houston Dynamo. It was a fairly comfortable, with first-half goals from Ethan Finlay (22’) and Gyasi Zardes (32’) setting the pace before Julio Cascante added another five minutes into the second half. Austin FC had 52% of the possession, and both teams took 10 shots on goal, but it seems like home advantage played a big role in giving Austin FC an edge when it really mattered.
Austin FC were one of the best sides in the league last season but haven’t shown that form this season. There was a bit of an overperformance last season if we take a closer look at the expected goals, so this drop-off seemed inevitable. However, beating top sides like Houston Dynamo and FC Dallas 3-0 on the bounce is no mean feat and will give the team a lot of confidence heading into the game against Inter Miami. Inter Miami have been all over the place this season, so we think Austin FC will rip into them on the weekend.
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