NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Monday 12/18/23

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The Boston Celtics cemented their status atop the Eastern Conference with another win against the Orlando Magic, while the Milwaukee Bucks won their fourth straight game behind 69 points from Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Monday.

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Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds (-120) at FanDuel

Allen has a large responsibility to dominate the glass with Evan Mobely out of the lineup due to an injury. He grabbed 10 and 14 boards in his last two games and went over this total four times in seven games this month.

One of Allen’s problems is that he has not been able to stay on the floor, but he’s unlikely to have his minutes shortened with the Cavs struggling for size. The Houston Rockets play slowly but rank 24th in field goal percentage and will miss their fair share of shots. They also don’t have any menacing rebounders, which gives Allen a path to success.

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Kawhi Leonard Over 2.5 Threes (+138) at FanDuel

Kawhi and the Los Angeles Clippers are playing excellent basketball right now, which is why they won seven straight games. Leonard is averaging 29.4 points per game on 56.8% three-point shooting in December and is yet to shoot worse than 50% from the floor in a game this month.

We’ve seen Kawhi go through stretches of outlandish three-point shooting before, so this is nothing new. He went 5-6 from long range in his last game against an outstanding New York Knicks defense, and now he’ll take on an Indiana Pacers squad that has one of the worst defenses in the league.

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Luka Doncic Over 10.5 Assists (+124) at FanDuel

Luka is a one-man army at times on offense now that Kyrie Irving is out with an injury. But that hasn’t proven to be much of an issue for him, as he’s averaged 37 points, 11.8 assists, and 9 rebounds over his last eight games. He’ll go against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets on Monday, which should prove to be an advantageous matchup as far as his assists go.

Denver has improved defensively (12th in def. rating) and plays extremely slow (27th in pace of play). That means that they force teams to spend lots of time in their half-court offense to try to out-execute them and create scoring opportunities in congested areas. Because the Nuggets are going to show lots of attention to Luka in this style of game, he should have many open passes to teammates that they just need to bury for him to go over his total.

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Cam Thomas Over 24.5 Points (-113) at FanDuel

22-year-old Thomas was on fire to start the season, sat out with an injury, returned, and did not have the same momentum he had before he exited the lineup. However, he just scored 41 points against the Golden State Warriors and has a long backlog of strong performances to show that he can maintain his scoring touch once he gets going. 

The Brooklyn Nets are taking on the Utah Jazz, who rank 24th in points allowed per game. They’ve also done a couple of players and aren't in a great run of form, whereas the Nets have proven to have lots of upside. We like the Nets to win a high-scoring game and for Thomas to be a driving force in that.

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Josh Giddey Under 10.5 Points (-130) at FanDuel

Giddey was once a cornerstone piece of a rebuilding franchise with a bright future, but now that the OKC Thunder are one of the three best teams in the Western Conference, he’s started to lose his place in the rotation. His average minutes per game has fallen with every passing month this season, and he was only handed 15 minutes in his last outing against the Nuggets.

Not only is Giddey getting fewer opportunities to play, but his production is decreasing. He averaged 10.1 points over his last 11 games and went under the 10.5 total in eight of those. The Thunder are also playing the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 11th in points allowed per game and could play him off the court if he doesn't score early.

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