NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Tuesday 12/19/23

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James Harden scored 18 straight points in the fourth quarter to lead the Los Angeles Clippers to their eighth straight win, while Luka Doncic’s 38/11/8 box score wasn’t enough to prevent the Dallas Mavericks from losing to the Denver Nuggets by 26 points. 

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Tuesday.

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Desmond Bane 4+ Threes (+170) at FanDuel

Bane is shooting 46.8% from three and made at least four threes in five of seven games in December. He also made four threes in four of his last five games, which gives him a precedent that is not only very promising but that does not appropriately match the value for the line.

Tuesday is expected to mark the return of Ja Morant, which will help take some of the playmaking burden off of Bane’s shoulders. With him returning to his usual role as a secondary scorer and catch-and-shoot player, he’ll be able to go against weaker defenders and benefit from Morant’s ability to collapse the defense. The New Orleans Pelicans are fourth in three-point percentage defense, but this is still shaping up to be a strong day for Bane.

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Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 Points (-122) at FanDuel

The San Antonio Spurs climbed to a top-five defense after moving Victor Wembanyama into the starting center role. However, Wemby is out with ankle soreness, and the Spurs just allowed the Pelicans to score 146 points in regulation (including 85 second-half points) in their last game on Sunday.

Giannis has been on a tear recently, averaging 35.4 points and scoring 32+ in five of seven games during that time frame (though he failed to hit this mark in his last two games). The Spurs are only 20th in points in the paint allowed, whereas the Greek Freak leads the league in points in the paint, and he should feast with Wemby set to miss the game.

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Deandre Ayton Over 12.5 Points (-128) at FanDuel

Ayton, who has been accused of having a low motor, showed a rare sign of motivation in his team’s previous matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who traded him to the Portland Trail Blazers this summer. The 7-footer took his second-most field goal attempts in a game of the season (14) and scored 18 points, which tied his third-highest scoring output of the year.

The Suns are many things, but a strong defensive team on the interior is not one of them. Jusuf Nurkic is formidable around the rim but isn’t great at defending the short roll, and Ayton should be looking for his shot more than usual.

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Devin Booker Over 28.5 Points (-108) at FanDuel

Speaking of shot volume, Booker registered the most and third-most shot attempts of his season in his last two games, though he failed to shoot better than 42.3% in either game and was kept to 27 and 28 points. But if there’s one quality we can attribute to Booker, it is that he’s a relentless scorer and one that’s usually much more efficient than his recent performances suggest.

The 27-year-old is shooting 47.9% from the field and 39.3% from downtown thus far, and as long as he can get near his average, he should be able to go over. The Blazers are also only 18th in defensive rating over the last 10 games and 24th for the year, and they’ve given up 122.3 points per game during a recent seven-game losing streak. 

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Derrick White Over 4.5 Rebounds (+118) at FanDuel

The Warriors recently benched Andrew Wiggins and are without the suspended Draymond Green, which means Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga should get another run in the team. Even though the Warriors are fourth in rebound rate, their diminished size should make them more vulnerable on the glass.

We expect the Warriors to play small, which should lead to White getting a lot of minutes here. He hasn’t been a great rebounder but is active and collected five boards in two of his last three games, which gives us confidence in his ability to deliver again on Tuesday.

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