NBA Finals Player Props and Best Bets: Fade Shai, Back Chet and This +2200 Parlay

Oklahoma City Thunder will win the NBA Finals if they beat the Indiana Pacers in Game 6 on Thursday, and I’ve picked my favorite player props from the action.

The Thunder are riding high off their 11-point win in Game 5, during which Jalen Williams led the way with 40 points. OKC has now won three of the last four games, though the one loss was on the road in Indiana in Game 3.

The Pacers are prepared to play without Tyrese Haliburton, who is feared to have suffered a calf strain in Game 5. He did not make a field goal his last time on the court, but his backup, T.J. McConnell, had 18 points, four rebounds, and four assists in only 22 minutes.

Here are my best player prop picks for Game 6 of the Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals on Thursday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, June 19

Andrew Nembhard Over 10.5 Points

Nembhard went under in three straight games after he opened the series with back-to-back overs. He’s made some difficult and important shots over the course of the series, but his lack of volume – just 8.2 field goal attempts per game – has made it difficult for him to find the over.

With Haliburton potentially sidelined or hindered by his calf injury, Nembhard should spend more time with the ball in his hands and earn more shooting opportunities. The Thunder have largely used Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to defend him, and Nembhard has been able to get to the bucket more times than not.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 Threes

Speaking of the reigning MVP, he has not gone over this line since Game 1 of the Finals when he made three of six threes in a 38-point explosion. He’s only shooting 30 percent from deep on 4.0 attempts per game and just went 0-3 from beyond the arc in the Game 5 win.

The Pacers have mostly done a great job defending against the Thunder from three-point land, and Nembhard has been brilliant with his one-on-one coverage of Gilgeous-Alexander. If Haliburton can’t play, it wouldn’t be surprising if Gilgeous-Alexander hunted the switch onto McConnell so he could take him into the post instead of pulling up from range.

Obi Toppin Over 4.5 Rebounds

Game 5 was the first time that Toppin did not manage to hit the over on this line, and he was only one rebound away with four. He averaged 5.4 boards per game in 24.6 minutes per game during the NBA Finals, and he could be in line for heavy playing time if Haliburton can’t get onto the court.

The Pacers attempted to counter the Thunder’s double-big lineup with sparsely-used Tony Bradley, but those minutes did not go well. Toppin figures to be involved early and often off the bench, especially if he continues to be an effective scorer against a Thunder defense that doesn’t have a great matchup for his size and athleticism.

Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 Rebounds

Holmgren has really blossomed defensively and on the boards over the course of the series. He only grabbed six rebounds in the first two games, but he snatched at least 10 in the last three games and just had 11 rebounds in the decisive Game 5 victory in OKC.

The Pacers are searching for answers on the glass, but they aren’t coming. Holmgren also played at least 34 minutes in three straight games and could get close to 40 if the game is close in the spirit of closing the door on the series, making this one of my best player prop picks of the day.

Aaron Nesmith Over 11.5 Points

Nesmith only went over this line twice in five Finals games, but one of those was when he dropped 14 points in Game 5. While he hasn’t been an incredible scorer, he made an absurd 51.9 percent of his 5.4 three-point attempts per game and is now shooting 50.4 percent on 5.4 three-point attempts per game in the playoffs.

If anyone needed a sign that Nesmith was fearless, run back the tape and watch his late-game putback dunk over a crowd of defenders. He won’t hesitate to put up shots if his number is called, which it very well could be if Haliburton isn’t able to impact the game by scoring the ball.

NBA “Big Boys” Same-Game Parlay (+2200) at Caesars

-Oklahoma City Thunder (-6) vs. Indiana Pacers 

• Chet Holmgren 8+ rebounds: Went over in three straight and averaged 12 rebounds per game during that stretch.

• Pascal Siakam 8+ rebounds: Went over in two of five and should see heavy minutes due to the failure of the Tony Bradley experiment.

• Isaiah Hartenstein 8+ rebounds: Had eight rebounds in his last game, went over in three of five.

• Chet Holmgren 15+ points: Only hit the over twice, but could play a ton of minutes in a closeout game.

• Pascal Siakam 15+ points: Went over in every game of the Finals and had 28 points in his last game.

• Myles Turner 15+ points: Only hit the over twice, but scored 12+ in back-to-back games and scored 1.6 more points per game at home during the regular season.

(+2200) $10 Bet Wins $220 at Caesars