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Bucks vs. Kings Prediction: Can the Bucks Continue Their Charge?

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published March 12, 2024
10 min read

The Milwaukee Bucks (42-23) are looking to solidify their position as the second seed in the Eastern Conference when they take on the Sacramento Kings (36-27) in Northern California on Tuesday evening.

The Bucks won seven of their last 10 games and are starting to finally look like true championship contenders. Giannis Antetokunmpo ran a career-high in on-ball screens against the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday while he and Damian Lillard also recorded season-highs in pick-and-rolls and hand-offs, which shows the team’s growing commitment to the two-man game.

The Kings fell to the Houston Rockets in their last outing and are just 1-3 in their last four home affairs, though they still won six of their last 10 and are one game away from climbing out of the Play-In Tournament and into the sixth seed in the Western Conference.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for the Bucks vs. Kings showdown.

Bucks vs Kings Prediction

Bucks vs. Kings Betting Odds for Monday, March 12

The Bucks are 28-36-1 (43.8%) against the spread and 12-14 (46.2%) ATS as a road favorite. That said, they covered seven of their last nine games and are playing some of their best basketball in recent months.

The Kings are 31-31-1 (50%) ATS and just 1-1 (50%) ATS as a home underdog. They covered in five of their last 15 and in the only prior matchup between these two this season.

Milwaukee Bucks-2.5 (-105)-140Over 236.5 (-110)
Sacramento Kings+2.5 (-115)+115Under 236.5 (-110)

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Bucks vs. Kings Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks Preview

The Doc Rivers era of the Bucks is coming together.

Despite a rocky start highlighted by fourth-quarter collapses and a total lack of offensive cohesion, they were signs that Doc’s message was permeating, specifically on the defensive end. Those signs are now full-blown alarm bells that should be alerting the rest of the East that the champs of a couple of years ago are coming.

Since the All-Star break, the Bucks rank fifth in net rating (second in the East behind the Boston Celtics) and are outscoring opponents by eight points per 100 possessions, more than twice as many as the sixth-ranked team during that span.

The team’s defensive rating (109.6) since the intermission would also rank second if applied to the year as a whole, behind only the Minnesota Timberwolves. That combined with a much-improved offense is enough reason to expect the early-season inconsistencies that plagued them to be put to rest come playoff time.

As mentioned above, the Giannis-Lillard pairing is finally taking off. Although they ranked highly in points per possession whenever both were involved, they are now looking to run actions involving the pair more frequently. That results in defenses struggling to contain them, as they can’t switch because of the mismatches that would result, and they can’t help too greatly because of the team’s ability at the three-point line.

The Bucks are second in threes made per game and seventh in percentage (38.6%) since the All-Star break. Giannis and Lillard also averaged a combined 56 points, 16.6 rebounds, and 14.4 assists during that time, all while Khris Middleton has been sidelined by an ankle injury. 

Sacramento Kings Preview

The Kings took the NBA world by storm last year because of their rapid, unexpected improvement. While they’re only the projected seventh seed after finishing in third last year, they’re just one game behind where they were a year ago at this point in the campaign.

Sacramento flies under the radar for a variety of reasons. They aren’t an amazing home team and don’t dominate advanced metrics, but they’re tough to put away and have strengths in their playstyle that make them tough to defend.

One of those strengths, like Milwaukee, is the two-man game involving their two best players, Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox. For the year, the team runs handoffs on 10.3% of their possessions (more than 1.5 times higher than the second-highest frequency), leading to the eighth-most points per possession on this playtype.

Sacramento is just 15th in net rating (-0.5) since the All-Star break. The offense is fine and ranks fifth, two spots ahead of the Bucks, but the defense is a lowly 26th during that stretch.

The Kings are also strangely better on the road than they are at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.4 more points per 100 possessions. 

Sabonis is having an excellent month thus far, averaging 22.2 points, 17.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists. Fox is also averaging 28.8 points per game while shooting just 24.1% from three, meaning that he has room to improve if he can drain his long-range shots like he was earlier in the year.

Sacramento’s edge could come on the boards here, as they rank second to Milwaukee’s 19th in post-All-Star break rebound rate. 

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Bucks vs. Kings Betting Pick

Sacramento has been the more profitable team, while Milwaukee is playing better and has a higher ceiling.

The key to watch is how Sabonis handles Giannis on the interior and if Fox and Malik Monk can match Lillard’s scoring output.  As great as Sacremnto’s offense has been, Milwaukee’s ability to anchor down and get stops, especially against a team that isn’t great at home, is key.

We expect the Bucks to add yet another victory to their resume and keep rolling as they cover against the Kings.

How to Watch Bucks vs. Kings

  • When: Tuesday 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

  • Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA

  • TV: NBA League Pass

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Grant Mitchell

472 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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