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Heat vs Knicks Game 5 Predictions: The Heat Can Close Out the Series

Written by: Christian Jope
Published May 10, 2023
11 min read
  • Jimmy Butler led the Miami Heat with 27 points, ten assists double-double in Game 4.
  • Jalen Brunson continues to star for the Knicks, scoring 32 points in their Game 4 loss.
  • The Miami Heat lead the New York Knicks 3-1.

When Game 5 tips off on Wednesday night, fans and bettors are sure to witness one of the most competitive matches of the 2023 NBA Playoffs! As the series shifts back to Madison Square Garden, the New York Knicks have no room for error. After the Miami Heat won Game 4 on their home court, they can book their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals with a win.

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Heat vs Knicks Odds

Odds taken from Caesars Sportsbook

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Miami Heat+3.5 (-110)
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+140
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O 209.5 (-110)
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New York Knicks-3.5 (-110)
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-165
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U 209.5 (-110)
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Heat vs Knicks Predictions

What Happened in Game 4?

The Miami Heat secured a 109-101 victory over the New York Knicks in Game 4, taking a 3-1 lead in their Eastern Conference semifinals matchup. Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 27 points and ten assists, while Bam Adebayo added 23 points and 13 rebounds. Miami now needs just one win to advance to the conference finals for the third time in four years.

Despite a shaky start to the fourth quarter, Miami held off New York, with Jalen Brunson leading the Knicks with 32 points and 11 assists. RJ Barrett contributed 24 points, and Julius Randle scored 20 before fouling out late in the game. New York is now one loss away from elimination.

Miami's win marks the fourth time in the NBA playoff format's 40-year history that a No. 8 seed has won at least seven games. Miami heads to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 on Wednesday, hoping to wrap up the series and move on to the conference finals.

Key Stats from the last game

The Miami Heat were more impactful from three-point range than the New York Knicks. While the Heat converted on 13 of 39 three-point field goal attempts, the Knicks made just 9 of 38 shots from beyond the arc. Miami outscored New York from a range of 39 to 27.

Despite struggling at the rim through most of the series, the New York Knicks defeated the Miami Heat inside. New York scored 50 points in the paint to just 46 from Miami. Their aggression also helped them get to the free throw line 24 times to Miami's 22.

The Miami Heat won the rebounding battle against the New York Knicks, 44 to 35. The Heat also dominated the offensive glass, collecting 13 to the Knicks' 8.

Heat vs Knicks Game Preview

The Miami Heat can put away the New York Knicks when they face off in Game 5 at Madison Square Garden. The New York Knicks need to find a way for their offense to overcome the Heat's defense. And the Miami Heat must find production from their role players if they don't want to extend the series further.

The Miami Heat have posted a road ATS Record of 19-25-1 through the 2022-23 season, covering the spread just 43.2% of the time. They have an average margin of victory of -1.9 on the road, with an ATS +/- of -0.8. Miami was just 17-24 on the road through the 2022-23 NBA season.

The New York Knicks have posted a home ATS Record of 20-22-3 through the 2022-23 season, covering the spread just 47.6% of the time. The Knicks have an average margin of victory of 4.5 at home, with an ATS +/- of +1.2. New York went 23-18 at Madison Square Garden this season.

Miami Heat Team Preview

Miami Heat ATS Record: 39-51-3

The Miami Heat aim to eliminate the New York Knicks with a win in Game 5. While they remain undefeated on their homecourt through the NBA Playoffs, the Heat are just 2-2 in road games this post-season. There are some key things to consider if they hope to beat the Knicks again on Wednesday night.

Much of the Miami Heat's success in Game 4 came from their ability to find opportunities in the paint and take care of the ball. Despite losing the paint-scoring battle by four, they won the rebounding battle by nine and committed just 13 turnovers on the evening. The Knicks and Heat play a slower-paced game, with just 16 fast-break points between them in Game 4, so finding quality opportunities in limited possessions is crucial.

While Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 50 points, 19 rebounds, and 12 assists, the Heat bench was just as valuable. The combination of Caleb Martin and Kyle Lowry contributed 25 points, ten rebounds, and six assists on 8 of 14 shooting from the field and 4 of 9 from three. They'll be difficult to beat if Miami can maintain their scoring with the bench unit.

New York Knicks Team Preview

New York Knicks ATS Record: 48-39-1

The New York Knicks are down 1-3 and have no option but to win if they hope to continue their run through the 2023 NBA Playoffs. With a 3-1 record on their home court through the post-season, the Knicks will hope Madison Square Garden can give them the support needed to push the series forward. When the Heat and Knicks tip off on Wednesday night, New York is set to put on their grittiest performance of the season.

In their Game 4 loss to the Miami Heat, the New York Knicks didn't get their offense flowing. They shot 48.7% from the field and assisted on just 21 of their 37 field goals while committing 17 turnovers on the night. A bit more capable on the scoring front on their home court, the Knicks need to find some shooting productivity to take down Miami.

The Knicks received fantastic output from their stars Brunson, Randle, and Barrett in Game 4, combining for 76 points, 18 rebounds, and 17 assists. On the other hand, their bench contributed just 10 points on 4 of 13 shooting. New York's stars don't have enough individually, so the Knicks' role players need to step up.

Heat vs Knicks Game Pick

  • Moneyline: Miami Heat (+140)
  • Total: Over 209.5 (-110)
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How to Watch Heat vs Knicks

  • Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
  • Game Time & Date: 7:30 PM EST, Wednesday, May 10, 2023
  • TV: TNT
  • Streaming: YouTube TV, Hulu, Sling
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AUTHOR

Christian Jope

1446 Articles

Christian Jope is a writer, social media strategist, and data analyst. A Queen’s University Alumni, Christian is an author and social media strategist with Raptors Cage, while also working closely with MLSE and Canada Basketball through community-driven events.

Email: [email protected]

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