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Warriors vs. Kings Prediction: Win or Go Home

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published April 16, 2024
12 min read

The Golden State Warriors will go on the road Tuesday night to face the Sacramento Kings in the 9 vs. 10 matchup in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament. The winner of the matchup will advance to play the loser of the Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans showdown, and the loser will be sent home for the summer.

The Warriors won 10 of their last 12 games but split the season series with the Kings 2-2. They also took down the Kings in seven games in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs a year ago, capped off by a 50-point explosion from Steph Curry in Game 7.

The Kings are pesky and put up a tough fight against most teams in the West. They will be well below full strength on Tuesday as both Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter will miss the game due to their respective injuries, which puts almost all of the pressure onto the shoulders of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for the Warriors vs. Kings Play-In Tournament matchup.

Warriors vs Kings Prediction

Warriors vs. Kings Betting Odds for Tuesday, April 16

The Warriors went 43-38-1 (53.1 percent) against the spread and 15-6 (71.4 percent) ATS as a road favorite. Despite their recent winning streak, they only finished the year by covering one of their six final games.

The Kings went 42-39-1 (51.9 percent) ATS and 3-2 (60 percent) ATS as a home underdog. They covered in four of their last six and in one of four matchups with Golden State.

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Golden State Warriors-3.5 (-105)-150Over 224.5 (-105)
Sacramento Kings+3.5 (-115)+125Under 224.5 (-115)

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Warriors vs. Kings Prediction

Golden State Warriors Preview

The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season at the optimal time, but that will all be for nothing if they can’t win a best-of-one on the road and in a hostile environment.

The Dubs were one of the worst road teams in basketball a year ago and still found a way to win a Game 7 outside of their building. They flipped those struggles on their head this year and went 25-16 on the road, though they only managed to go one game above .500 at home.

The Warriors ranked in the top 10 in offensive and defensive rating over their last 15 games. On top of that, they led all teams in average rebound rate and 39.6 percent from three-point territory, good for fourth in the league during that stretch.

The primary concern with Golden State’s scheme is that they don’t defend the three-point line well. They ranked 21st in threes allowed and 25th in opponents’ three-point percentage (37 percent), which becomes especially dangerous if the Kings get hot from deep in a one-and-done situation.

They also don’t take great care of the ball and ranked just 23rd in turnover percentage, a number which didn’t change drastically when Chris Paul was in the lineup instead of out injured.

The rest of the worries have to do with the team’s personnel. Andrew Wiggins regressed all year, Draymond Green was in and out of the lineup, and Klay Thompson was wildly inconsistent (though he enters the postseason on a nice run of form).

Steve Kerr’s crew posted the fourth-best point differential per 100 possessions on the road (+4.2) in basketball. They have the proof of concept but need to execute on Tuesday night.

Sacramento Kings Preview

This is a bit of a free hit for the Kings, a team that seemed as if it could be the fifth seed in the conference but fell down the standings due to disappointing play and injuries.

The Kings were 13th in offensive rating and 14th in defensive rating, making them a slightly above-average team. They only managed a +2.3 net rating in their building (17th) and lost five of seven games to finish the year.

If there’s one thing that Sacramento is going to do, it’s take a lot of threes. Their 39.3 attempts per game ranked third in the league (Golden State was fourth), and they climbed to 43.4 per game (first) in nine games since Monk’s injury.

Sabonis led the league in rebounds per game, but the team only finished ninth in rebound rate. They finished fourth in assist-to-turnover ratio and 11th in turnover percentage, however, meaning they got more out of their possessions than most teams. 

Fox did not play in one of the Kings’ two losses to the Warriors, which ended with a final score of 102-101. The team averaged 124 points in the three games he did play in, while he averaged 32.3 points. 

Unfortunately for Sacramento, it also has trouble defending the three. The team allowed the second-highest percentage of makes (38.7 percent), though it held opponents to the ninth-fewest attempts per game. 

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Warriors vs. Kings Betting Pick

This is a game that the Warriors need to win. There’s no reason to lose to a team down the potential Sixth Man of the Year and another trusted starter, especially considering they beat them in a playoff series a year ago.

That said, both of these teams have proven that they are one bad night defending the perimeter away from suffering a fatal loss. The losses of Monk and Huerter will make it tougher for Sacramento to expose this weakness, but the inconsistency of Thompson, Wiggins, and others could have the same effect. 

We believe the Warriors will pull away in the end, but it would not be shocking to see them flame out of the postseason. 

How to Watch Warriors vs. Kings

  • When: Tuesday, April 16 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

  • Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA

  • TV: TNT


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Grant Mitchell

528 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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