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Warriors vs. Knicks Prediction: Two of the League’s Best PGs Clash

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published February 29, 2024
10 min read

The Golden State Warriors (30-27) are taking on the New York Knicks (35-24) in Madison Square Garden on Thursday evening.

The Dubs found their stride after a turbulent start to the season, winning 11 of their last 14 games. This will be their first of two meetings with the Knicks, and while they’re 14-6 against the Eastern Conference, they’re just 11-24 against teams with winning records.

The Knicks enter the matchup in the opposite run of form, having dropped six of their last eight games as injuries have taken their toll. They’ve been much better than Golden State overall but are also just 12-22 against teams above .500.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for the Warriors vs. Knicks matchup on Thursday.

Warriors vs Knicks Prediction

Warriors vs. Knicks Betting Odds for Thursday, Feb. 29

The Warriors are 31-25-1 (55.4%) against the spread, the third-best mark in the association. They’re 4-2-1 ATS as a road underdog (also the third-best - 66.7%) and covered in 11 of their last 14 games overall.

The Knicks are 30-27-2 (52.6%) ATS and 12-9 (57.1%) ATS as a home favorite but covered just once in their last 10 games. 

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Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Golden State Warriors -4.5 (-105) -175 Over 222.5 (-115)
New York Knicks +4.5 (-115) +145 Under 222.5 (-105)

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Warriors vs. Knicks Prediction

Golden State Warriors Preview

The Warriors’ roller coaster of a season went through another loop two weeks ago when Steven Kerr opted to bring Klay Thompson off the bench for the first time since his rookie season in 2011-12. The four-time champion responded to the decision by scoring 35 points before he dropped three the very next game in a perfect microcosm of his up-and-down season.

In five games since being relegated to the bench, Thompson averaged 19.8 points (2.6 above his season average) on 44.9% three-point shooting.

The second half of the Splash Brothers was replaced in the starting lineup by rookie Brandin Podziemski, who demonstrated an impressive ability to keep the ball moving and come up with offensive rebounds while also scoring roughly 10 points per night.

The Dubs rank fifth in defensive and sixth in offensive efficiency since the start of February. They still turn the ball over at a rate above the league average but are just 19th, which is a substantial improvement from where they previously were. 

Golden State also shot 39.3% from long range during that span, which is a major reason the offense popped so greatly. 

As well as the team is playing, Steph Curry is nowhere near his best. He averaged just 20.2 points on 27.6% three-point shooting over his last five outings. He’s also been a mixed back in New York, scoring more than 29 three times but fewer than 22 four times in his last seven games in Madison Square Garden. 

Chris Paul made his return to the lineup from an injury on Tuesday against the Washington Wizards and scored nine points with six assists, finishing as a +17 in 22 minutes.

New York Knicks Preview

The Knicks might just be the second-best team in the Eastern Conference at full strength. They dominated the league after trading for OG Anunoby around the new year and were great even after he went out, though they hit a rut just before the All-Star break.

For the year, the Knicks are eighth in scoring differential per 100 possessions (and seventh at home, +5.9)—but over the last eight games, they rank just 27th in this department.

Jalen Brunson (questionable - neck) has been everything for his squad. He averaged 32.4 points and 7.7 assists in February and scored 33 or more in six of his last nine games.

Donte DiVincenzo also shone in an enlarged role, averaging 22.3 points and 4.8 threes on 39% long-range shooting during the month. But even despite their efforts, the Knicks are 21st in threes and 28th in percentage since Feb. 1.

Despite the injuries and cold streak, New York still ranked eighth in rebound rate over the last few weeks. Unfortunately for them, the Warriors lead the league in that category. This creates an interesting matchup since the Knicks allowed the third-fewest second-chance points during that time, while Golden State led all teams in second-chance points.

If there is an area for the Knicks to exploit, it’s Golden State’s constant change and lack of continuity. With Andrew Wiggins out for personal reasons, Klay still transitioning to the second unit, and Paul’s return, the bonds forged through the New York fire could give them an advantage whenever the starters are off the court. 

For what it’s worth, both teams rank in the top eight in bench net rating. 

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Warriors vs. Knicks Betting Pick

It’s easy to understand why the Warriors are favored in this game. The real question is whether they will cover the 4.5 points. 

As famous of a venue as MSG is, the Warriors have the fifth-best road net rating and are 7-1 away from their building in February. 

With all of that said, the Warriors only played a couple of tough opponents recently and had mixed results. If Brunson plays, his tenacity and shot creation are enough of a reason for us to take the Knicks with the points—but only if he plays.

How to Watch Warriors vs. Knicks

  • When: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET

  • Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

  • TV: TNT

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Grant Mitchell

472 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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