Warriors vs Lakers Game 5 Predictions: Can Golden State Rally?

• The Lakers won Game Four 104-101 to go up 3-1 in the series
• Steph Curry had a 31-point triple-double in the Game Four loss
• The Warriors are 3-2 at home in the postseason

The Golden State Warriors are one loss away from foregoing their title defense and will face the Los Angeles Lakers at home in Game Five Wednesday night.

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Warriors vs Lakers Game Five Odds

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

What Happened in Game Four

Game Four was the most defensive-minded battle of the four games in the series. The final score of 104-101 was 22 points under the line at tip-off (227), and both teams shot worse than 47% from the field and 30% from three. It was also the continuation of an ongoing chess match between coaches Darvin Ham and Steve Kerr, who have made non-stop adjustments throughout the series.

Kerr opted for his third different starting five in four games and inserted Gary Payton II into the opening lineup in place of JaMychal Green. His presence allowed the Warriors to make plays behind the first layer of the defense, mostly after Steph Curry had lured Anthony Davis out from the paint with a high pick-and-roll. Ham countered that in the second half by going small and switching more.

Golden State was up by 12 in the third quarter and seven in the fourth but only scored 17 points in the final period. Curry had a few late looks at the basket and also recovered a jump ball with a few seconds left but blindly tossed the ball out of bounds instead of calling a timeout. LA made all of its clutch free-throws to see the game over the line and send the series back to San Francisco.  

Key Stats from Game Four

LeBron James (27 points, nine rebounds, six assists), Anthony Davis (23 points, 15 rebounds, three steals), and Austin Reaves (21 points, 3-6 3PT) totaled nearly 70% of the team’s scoring. Lonnie Walker IV also came off the bench for the second straight game after being out of the rotation for months and provided 15 massive points, all in the fourth quarter. He was one of the few people in the game making consistent jumpers and was pivotal in the Lakers winning.

Curry added another amazing performance to his 2022-23 postseason resume with 31 points, 14 assists, and 10 rebounds, though he missed two go-ahead shots and turned the ball over with less than a minute left. Andrew Wiggins (17 points) and Payton II (15 points) played well, while Klay Thompson (nine points, 3-11 FG) and Jordan Poole (zero points, 0-4 FG) did not.

The Lakers succeeded yet again in getting to the free-throw line and made all 20 of their attempts. Any worse and they aren’t in a position to win the game when Curry takes his shots at the end of the game. The Warriors have now also shot 29.4% from three in their last two games after shooting 44.2% in the first two. 

Warriors vs Lakers Game Five Preview

Kerr found success adding Payton II into the lineup and is likely to continue with him in Game Five. Similarly, Walker IV practically guaranteed his spot in the rotation for at least the next week with his heroics down the stretch. Beyond that, both Kerr and Ham have shown a willingness to tinker with their approach and have both been rewarded at different points.

The Warriors need to hit threes to win games against the Lakers, simply put. Luckily for them, they shot 2.1% better (39.1% vs 37%) from beyond the arc at home than on the road and made 21 threes in each of their two home games in this series. The Lakers have been eager to force Curry to become a playmaker for his teammates instead of a shot-hunter, so it will be interesting to see how that translates back to the Chase Center.

The Lakers are older and looked more tired than the Warriors, but they are still finding ways to win games. LA looked especially lethargic for the first three-quarters of Game Four and still came out on top, which does not bode well for the Warriors’ overall chances in Game Five.  

How Do the Warriors Win?

The Warriors will win Game Five if they hit their three-point shots and also stop the Lakers from getting out in transition. LA’s frequent inability to shoot the basketball means that it finds motivation and momentum from easy looks like second-chance and fast-break points, so it's incumbent upon the Warriors not to give them the chance.

How Do the Lakers Win?

The Lakers will win Game Five if they come out with energy early and guard the three-point line effectively. They have shown a consistent ability to dominate the interior and have also pulled several comeback victories, so as long as they don’t go down by a huge amount early, they will have a chance to win. 

Warriors vs Lakers Game Five Prediction

Lakers +6.5 is the strongest play in the game. Even though the Lakers are up 3-1 and have the luxury of being able to take their foot off the gas, they want to get as much rest as possible and also don’t want to let the defending champs hang around longer than they have to. Rather than lengthen the rotation, it’s feasible that they shorten it and treat Wednesday like a Game Seven. They might not win, but they’ll keep it close, hence the spread bet.

How to Watch Warriors vs Lakers Game Five

• Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• When: 10:00 p.m. ET, Wednesday, May 10
• TV: TNT
• Streaming: YouTube TV, Hulu, Sling, etc.