Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord has 354 or more passing yards in both games he’s played this season.
Illinois’ defense allows just 151.7 passing yards and 123 rushing yards per game.
USC is on the road against Michigan in Alex Orji’s first career start.
In Week 3, I went with Boston College, Tennessee, and Texas for a three-leg parlay with +654 odds, and it hit. Boston College covered, while Texas and Tennessee blew out UTSA and Kent State, respectively.
Below, I’ll try to keep the streak going with a three-leg parlay that includes Syracuse, Illinois, and Penn State. The odds for this parlay are +575 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Don’t look now, but Syracuse is 2-0 and coming off a bye week. In Week 2, they beat Georgia Tech, and quarterback Kyle McCord has looked excellent. He heads into this game completing 68.6% of his passes for 735 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception. He’s thrown for at least 354 yards in each game.
McCord has been excellent on deep passes, too. He’s completed seven of 12 passes for 199 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He distributes the ball fairly well all over the field. Between the numbers 20+ yards down the field, he’s completed four of four passes for 102 yards and a touchdown.
Remember, this is a guy who played well at Ohio State but was outcasted only after losing to Michigan. If he beat Michigan, who knows where he’d be right now?
Here, he draws a matchup at home against Stanford, arguably the worst program in the ACC.
Stanford allows nearly 279 passing yards per game. They’ve played TCU and Cal Poly this year. Cal Poly was hardly a challenge, but against TCU, they allowed 353 passing yards.
Syracuse’s defense can be run on. They allow 187 rushing yards per game. They played Georgia Tech, a team that’s notorious for running, but Ohio—and no, not Ohio State or Miami of Ohio—ran well, too.
However, Stanford averages about 120 rushing yards per game.
Look for McCord to trounce Stanford while Syracuse’s defense handles Stanford quarterback Ashton Daniels, who’s completed just three of 15 passes 20+ yards downfield for 91 yards.
Syracuse will handle this one, especially with Stanford traveling to the East Coast.
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This line opened at +10 for Illinois, and while I’d prefer that over 8.5, of course, I’ll still lean toward Illinois here.
Look, I’m a big fan of Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola. He’s been fun to watch as a true freshman, but this will be a real challenge for him.
Raiola had 11 yards per attempt in Week 3, which helped elevate his average to 8.3 for the year. In Week 2, he averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt against Colorado.
Illinois’s defense allowed 123 rushing yards and 151.7 passing yards per game. Nebraska’s offense averages 171.3 rushing yards and 250 passing yards per game.
Nebraska’s defense has also come up big this season, holding teams to just 185 passing yards and 70.3 rushing yards per game.
Illinois has a competent quarterback, Luke Altmyer. He’s completing more than 69% of his passes for 647 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He’s also averaging 8.3 yards per attempt.
However, Illinois did beat Kansas in Week 2. At the time, Kansas was ranked No. 19 in the country.
I expect this to be a hard-fought defensive battle, and 8.5 points for a true freshman in his first true challenge is too much.
Both teams are nationally ranked. Nebraska edges this one out at home, but definitely not by nine points or more.
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Penn State was off in Week 3 with a bye week, but they’re back against a team in Kent State that has appears to be the laughingstock of college football.
Before heading into the bye, Penn State edged out a home win over Bowling Green but allowed 27 points and for their quarterback, Connor Bazelak, to complete 25 of 39 passes for 254 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Bowling Green averaged 5.7 yards per play, too.
However, Penn State gets a “gimme” matchup here to allow them to assert their dominance.
In last week's parlay, I took Tennessee against Kent State, and they blew them out 71-0.
Penn State may not have Nico Iamaleava at quarterback, but this offense averages 228 rushing yards per game, while Kent State allows 288 per game. That's the second most among 130+ teams.
Tennessee had nearly 500 in Week 3 with over 700 yards of total offense.
Kent State also allows 282.7 passing yards per game (122nd), and Allar averages 210 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game.
I don’t know if the Penn State offense is as explosive as Tennessee's, but this is a prime spot to get the downfield passing attack going again and for running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton to have their best games of the year.
Penn State hasn’t scored 49 points or more in a game since Nov. 4, 2023, against Maryland, but I think 49 points may be enough here as I don’t expect Kent State to score a single point.
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