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FAU leads the AAC in scoring (83.0 PPG), field goal percentage (47.9%), and point differential (+9.7)
Memphis went 11-7 in conference play this season
SMU lost four of their final five games
South Florida has won the AAC regular season title, but only FAU is close to securing the NCAA Tournament heading into Championship Week. The Bulls suffered a stunning loss to Tulsa in their final game of the season, meaning they must prove themselves in the AAC Tournament to make this year's March Madness field.
While FAU and South Florida have been the conference’s top teams, the top of the AAC is very competitive. Teams like Memphis, Charlotte, and SMU can beat anybody and will be motivated to earn the tournament's grand prize: an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament.
Below, we will share the latest odds to win the tournament, insights into the top four favorites, and our pick to win.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below to place your bets at FanDuel and claim $200 in Bonus Bets!
After a miraculous run to last season’s Final Four, the FAU Owls are having another fantastic season. They finished second in the AAC thanks to an incredible winning streak by the South Florida Bulls. That streak ended over the weekend, leading bookmakers to establish FAU as the betting favorite to win the conference tournament.
The Owls had some tough losses to mediocre teams this season, but they also have some impressive neutral-court wins. The biggest came against #6 Arizona, but the Owls also took down Texas A&M and Loyola Chicago. The rest of the conference has beefed up its records by beating each other to compensate for its weak non-conference schedules. That makes a difference not only in the selection committee’s eyes but also in the Owls' confidence entering this week.
FAU’s strength is its ability to score efficiently. They lead the AAC in scoring (83.0 PPG), field goal percentage (47.9%), and point differential (+9.7). They also finished second in three-point percentage (37.5%) and fourth in rebounding (38.2 RPG).
While some very good defensive teams are in the conference, they don’t have the offense to keep up with the Owls. Add that to the fact that they have experience from last year’s Final Four run, and you can see why bookmakers see them as the clear favorite to win the 2024 AAC Tournament.
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This is the most interesting team in the AAC. The Tigers landed in the top 10 of the AP rankings after starting the season 15-2. They posted wins against Texas A&M, Clemson, Arkansas, and Virginia, all of whom were ranked at the time. However, things fell apart as they began AAC play, where they finished with a mediocre 11-7 record. Some of those losses came to the conference’s top teams and bad ones in Rice and Tulane.
Memphis has a significant advantage in forward David Jones. The senior leads the team in scoring (21.7 PPG), rebounds (7.6 RPG), and steals (2.1 SPG). A player of that caliber can help win many games in a mid-major conference, but he can’t compensate for the Tigers’ poor defense. They finished the season twelfth in opponent scoring (75.9 PPG), which has offset their impressive offense during conference play.
The Tigers will be desperate to enter tournament play this week. They’ll benefit from playing Witchita State or Rice in the first round, though the latter beat them at home at the end of January. Assuming they can advance, there is certainly a path for them to make the championship game, with matchups likely against UAB and South Florida to get there.
Memphis is the biggest wildcard in the AAC tournament, making them an intriguing bet at their current price.
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SMU’s talent makes them a top-three favorite with sportsbooks, but we aren’t sold. The team lost four of its final five games, and those came against the conference’s other top-five teams. We can forgive the close losses on the road, but dropping a game to UTSA at home is a red flag. Considering that their best win was on the road against a mediocre Florida State team, we haven’t seen enough from SMU to make us think they are capable of making a run.
One major issue with SMU is their ability to score. They ranked sixth in the conference in scoring (76.9 PPG) and have just two players who average over 10 points. Their defense has been better, ranking third in opponent scoring (67.6 PPG). That gives them the second-best point differential in the conference (+9.2), though it hasn’t translated into wins late in the season. Over their final five games, the Mustangs are averaging 77.4 points allowed.
SMU will open with either UTSA or Temple before taking on Charlotte and likely FAU for a chance to make the final game.
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South Florida's NCAA Tournament hopes were damaged when they lost their season's final game to Tulsa. The loss ended a 15-game win streak that helped the team win the AAC regular-season title. Given their odds for the AAC tournament, it appears bookmakers believe the Bulls are about to fall back down to earth.
One reason for the doubts is that the Bulls don’t have true strength. They are fourth in opponent-scoring (68.6 PPG) and third in assists (14.9 APG) and turnovers (10.8 TO/G). After that, they rank in most categories towards the middle of the pack. That lack of statistical dominance has led many to question South Florida now that their hot streak is over.
One big weapon South Florida has is their ability to shoot from deep. From the three-point line, guards Chris Youngblood (41.1 3P%) and Selton Miguel (38.8 3P%) have been fantastic. Their efficiency from deep means the Bulls can make big scoring runs, making them a dangerous opponent this time of year.
This team came into the season with low expectations and lost four of its first six games against mediocre and bad teams. It managed to rally to finish with an excellent 23-6 record, but we’ll see if that momentum can survive last weekend’s loss and carry into the tournament this week.
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The Owls have the best team in the AAC, and it isn’t even close. Any mid-major team with the Owls' national profile (and ranking) will have a target on their back in conference play. That means each opponent they face will give everything they have to beat them. A resume-building win against a ranked conference opponent is critical, with at-large bids being a rarity in the AAC.
While this can be a problem during the regular season, it won’t be this week. Playing a tournament on a neutral court is far different than a standard conference game, and nobody has more experience than the Owls. They know how to win on a neutral court in elimination games, which is rare for mid-major schools.
Look for FAU to cruise to a tournament title, giving them momentum to head into Selection Sunday.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.
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