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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators Prediction: #16 Tide Rolling into Gainesville

Written by: Tanner Kern
Published March 5, 2024
10 min read

On Tuesday, the 16th-ranked Crimson Tide will head to Gainesville to face the Florida Gators. This is a mega matchup in the SEC that both teams desperately need. 

Alabama enters this matchup with a 20-9 record. They’re 12-4 in the SEC and are tied for second place in the conference. However, they have lost two of their past three games, and winning on the road in Gainesville will be tough. 

Good teams respond, but bookmakers believe Alabama will struggle again based on the spread. Florida, a home favorite, is 20-9 and 10-6 in the SEC. They’re not ranked, but they have been tough to beat in 2024. 

The opening tip is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET. Here, we will break down our best bets and preview the matchup between Alabama and Florida.

Alabama vs Florida Prediction

Alabama vs. Florida Betting Odds for Monday, March 4th

The Crimson Tide is a 1.5-point underdog, and they’re priced at -105 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Florida enters this matchup at -114 on the moneyline. 

Alabama has been profitable against the spread this season with a 17-12 record. The Gators have lost money for bettors against the spread with a 13-15-1 record. 

The total is 177.5, and Alabama is the best over team in the SEC at 21-8. Florida has also made over bettors money this season with a 17-11-1 record. 

Teams Spread Moneyline Total 
Alabama Crimson Tide +1.5 (-115) -105 Over 177.5 (-110)
Florida Gators -1.5 (-105) -114 Under 177.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets if you wager $5 on your first bet and win.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators Preview

Alabama and Florida will meet for the second time this season on Tuesday. The Crimson Tide took the season's first meeting, but they escaped their home gym with a win. 

Alabama trailed for most of the second half but forced overtime and prevailed 98-93. The Crimson Tide can afford to fall behind at times because of their elite offense. Alabama isn’t the best defensive team in the world, but they can score quickly. 

Alabama is eighth in the KenPom Ratings, but they’re far from a balanced team. They have the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation, but they’re 101st in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Their defense has been a significant liability, but they score so many points that it’s hard for many teams to roll with the Tide. 

Alabama is scoring the most points per game in the nation, and they’re third in shooting percentage. The group is led by Mark Sears, one of the country's best scorers.

Sears scores 20.7 points per game and shoots 51% from the field. He can hurt opposing defenses from mid-range and also from the three-point line. Sears shoots 43.3% from deep and has been very reliable all season. 

However, one of the reasons Alabama nearly lost to Florida a couple of weeks ago was because Sears didn’t play well. Sears was 33% from the field and just 1-6 from the three-point line. 

As an underdog, Sears must play better to give the Crimson Tide a road victory. Despite not being in the AP Top 25, Florida is a very efficient program. 

They’re 31st in the KenPom Ratings this season. Like their Tuesday night opponents, they have been much better on offense than defense. The Gators are 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency but 88th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Walter Clayton Jr. is the player who must step up for the Gators to give his team a realistic chance against a superior Alabama team. Clayton Jr. averages just under 17 points per game and shoots 44.1% from the field. 

Clayton Jr. isn’t the only scorer on the team. Four of the five players who lead the team in minutes score over ten points per game. Florida must be efficient from the field because Alabama is rarely cold.

Florida usually wins on the glass, but Alabama controlled this aspect of the last game. The Gators had a late lead but couldn’t finish, so they’ll need a lot of help from the home crowd. 

Wager just $5 and claim $150 in bonus bets at FanDuel Sportsbook!

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators Prediction and Betting Pick

The last time Alabama played Florida, the Gators had a lead, but the Tide were better the entire game. They shot better from the field and were more efficient at the foul line.

Sears was horrendous the entire game, and Alabama still came out on top. If the Tide can settle in on the road and neutralize the visiting crowd, it should give them life. 

Alabama is a better team, and we trust them in this spot. Considering they’re an underdog, it’s easy to take the 1.5 points with Alabama. 

How to Watch Alabama vs. Florida

  • When: Monday, March 5th @ 7:00 PM ET

  • Where: Exactech Arena at the Stephen O’Connell Center

  • TV: ESPN

  • Streaming: ESPN+

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AUTHOR

Tanner Kern

345 Articles

Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.

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