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San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Prediction: West Coast Conference Semifinal

Written by: Tanner Kern
Published March 11, 2024
10 min read

The San Francisco Dons and Gonzaga Bulldogs will meet for the third time this season on Saturday. The two West Coast Conference powerhouses will battle in the conference semifinal.

San Francisco enters with a 23-9 record, including 11-5 in the West Coast Conference. Gonzaga is 24-6 and 14-2 in the WCC. 

The Bulldogs have the Dons this season, winning both contests by a combined 23 points. However, it’s tough to beat a team three times in a year, so look for this to be a competitive matchup. 

The opening tip from Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV, is scheduled for 11:30 PM ET. Here, we will break down the WCC semifinal and give our best bets for the action.

Dons vs Bulldogs Prediction and odds

San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Betting Odds for Monday, March 11th

San Francisco has been profitable against the spread this season, at 18-11-2. They cover 62.1% of the time but are receiving 8.5 points as an underdog on FanDuel Sportsbook. 

The Dons are priced at +280 on the moneyline, while Gonzaga is -360 on the moneyline. The Bulldogs have lost money against the spread at 14-15. 

The total is 149.5, and these teams have been similar in this market. Gonzaga is 14-15, and San Francisco is 16-15 to the over this season. 

Teams Spread Moneyline Total 
San Francisco Dons +8.5 (-108)
Over 149.5 (-110)
Gonzaga Bulldogs -8.5 (-112)
Under 149.5 (-110)

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Prediction

The West Coast Conference Tournament is always one of the most competitive mid-major competitions in the country. Programs like San Francisco and Gonzaga are two of the teams that have made this tournament a must-watch every year. 

The Bulldogs have the edge coming into this matchup. They have dominated the Dons over the years. This will be the 96th meeting all-time between the two programs, and Gonzaga has a 73-22 lead.

This is the third straight season where the two teams have faced off in the WCC semifinal. The Bulldogs have won yearly and haven’t lost to the Dons since February 18, 2012. 

Gonzaga has been fantastic to end the season. They aren’t consistently covering the spread but are finding ways to win. Bookmakers consistently price them as double-digit favourites, making it hard to be profitable against the spread. 

However, they have a lot of talent, and their roster has dominated many teams in the WCC. Three Bulldogs, Graham Ike, Ryan Nembhard, and Anton Watson, made first-team All-WCC.

Nolan Hickman made the second team, and Braden Huff made the All-WCC first team, so nearly all their significant contributors received accolades. The Bulldogs have been in the All-WCC championship game for the past 26 seasons and have a great chance to make it 27 on Monday. 

The Dons must be flawless to earn the win. Their star players must have their best games of the season, and the program is entering the WCC semifinal with momentum. 

San Francisco defeated Portland in the quarterfinals by 21 points. They dominated the game and had a lead of as high as 30 points in the second half. 

The player to watch for the Dons is Jonathan Mogbo. Mogbo is just a junior, but his 6’8” frame has helped him dominate opponents. He is scoring 14.7 points per game with 10.3 rebounds. 

Mogbo is also seventh in the country in shooting percentage at 64.3%. In his last game, he had 14 points and 11 rebounds against Gonzaga. However, he was just 44% from the free-throw line, which he must improve in the WCC semifinal. 

The key for San Francisco is to shoot 50% or better from the field. When they shoot 50% and make 10+ three-pointers, they’re 11-0 this season. It’s easier said than done against a talented Gonzaga team, but there is a route to success for the program in the WCC Championship. 

San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Betting Pick

While Gonzaga has one of the most impressive winning streaks in West Coast Conference Tournament history, we don’t believe they’ll cover the spread. 

The Bulldogs know how to win, but they haven’t covered consistently. They’re favored by 8.5 points, which is a big margin in what should be a very competitive contest. Take the Dons with the points as we believe they’ll keep it close like the first meeting of the year. 

How to Watch San Francisco vs. Gonzaga

  • When: Monday, March 11th @ 11:30 PM ET

  • Where: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

  • TV: ESPN2

  • Streaming: ESPN+

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Tanner Kern

353 Articles

Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.

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