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VCU Rams vs. Dayton Flyers Prediction: Rams Look for Road Upset

Written by: Tanner Kern
Published March 8, 2024
10 min read

The final A-10 game of the season will occur on Friday night. The Dayton Flyers will battle Virginia Commonwealth in a game that means a lot for both sides. 

Both programs need to gain some momentum heading into the A-10 Tournament. VCU is a hefty road underdog in this spot, but they have been competitive this season. The Rams are 19-11 and 11-6 in the conference. 

Dayton is 23-6 on the season with a 13-4 A-10 record. They’re third in the conference and were in the Top 25 earlier this season. However, their struggles on the road have caused them to lose respect among the national media. 

The opening tip is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Friday. Here, we will break down VCU vs. Dayton and give our best bets for the contest.

VCU Rams vs. Dayton Flyers Prediction

VCU vs. Dayton Betting Odds for Friday, March 8th

On FanDuel Sportsbook, Dayton is an 8.5-point favorite at home. They’re priced at -375, while the Flyers are +290. 

The Flyers and Rams have both been very profitable against the spread. Dayton is 15-13-1 ATS, while VCU is one of the best teams in the conference ATS with a 17-11-1 record. 

The total is listed at 138.5, and these two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Flyers are 18-11 to the over, while VCU is 16-14 to the under. 

Teams Spread Moneyline Total 
VCU Rams +8.5 (-115) +290 Over 138.5 (-110)
Dayton Flyers -8.5 (-105) -375 Under 138.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets if you wager $5 on your first bet and win.

VCU vs. Dayton Preview

VCU isn’t on the same level as Dayton regarding talent, but they have printed money against the spread. Bettors at VCU have made money this season despite their lackluster statistical measures. 

VCU is 91st in the KenPom Ratings. They have been elite on defense, ranking 56th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 132nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. Their lack of scoring should be challenging to overcome on the road. 

They’re 199th in points per game and 111th in shooting percentage. They win with defense by keeping games close, but when they’re asked to make a big shot, Max Shulga is the player who gets the ball. 

Shulga is VCU’s biggest weapon, scoring 15 points per game. He has been elite from the three-point line, shooting just under 45% from the field. He is also the best passer on the team and consistently takes the ball up the floor. 

The other player who must step up for VCU is Joe Bamilsile. He is the second-leading scorer on the team, averaging 14 points per game. However, these two can’t overcome the entire team’s offensive inefficiencies. 

For VCU to win, their defense must be flawless. The unit is 40th in America in defensive scoring, so Dayton must bring their A-game in the frontcourt. Dayton ranks higher in the KenPom Ratings than expected for an unranked program. 

The team is 26th in the country in overall efficiency. They have won with offense, as they are 18th in this part of the game. However, they’re 68th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

The Flyers move the ball up the floor slowly, but they take advantage of their opportunities. DaRon Holmes, a legitimate NBA prospect, leads Dayton. The forward shoots 55.3% from the field and scores 20.1 points per game.

He is big enough to win in the paint, where he thrives. However, he can make big shots from the perimeter at will. 

Very few teams in the Atlantic 10 have shut down Holmes, and we don’t expect VCU to have much success in this category. Holmes also thrives on defense, with tons of rebounds and blocks in every game. 

He makes his presence felt, which should be one reason Dayton rolls at home. 

Wager just $5 and claim $150 in bonus bets at FanDuel Sportsbook!

VCU vs. Dayton Prediction and Betting Pick

VCU is one of the best-spread teams in the Atlantic 10, so they deserve respect in a hostile road environment. Yet, the Flyers have a lot going for them in this game.
The first is they’re at home on senior night and have much to play for after a shaky end to their season. The Flyers have the best player on the floor in Holmes and have been fantastic in their building. 

Dayton’s efficiency from the field has been flawless at home, and when they go on runs, VCU won’t be able to keep pace. 

How to Watch VCU vs. Dayton

  • When: Friday, March 8th @ 7:00 PM ET

  • Where: UD Arena, Dayton, OH

  • TV: ESPN2

  • Streaming: ESPN+

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AUTHOR

Tanner Kern

353 Articles

Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.

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