NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread: Predictions, Best Bets, Odds

As we approach Week 1 of the NFL season, it’s time to start thinking about and getting ready for player prop bets.

At the time of this writing, the only player props released are for the start of the season, with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Buffalo Bills.

While it’s just one game, there are still plenty of valuable prop bets to consider.

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Dawson Knox Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars

Seeing over 70 targets last year, Dawson Knox has proven to be a reliable tight end option in the passing game. Still, he’s far from No. 1 in the pecking order.

In 2021, Knox went above this prop line eight times but gets a rough matchup here in Week 1.

That said, this is a tough matchup in general for the Bills. Not only the road against the defending Super Bowl champions, but the defensive side of the ball for the Rams has a plethora of talent, adding Bobby Wagner at linebacker this offseason.

Yes, Josh Allen is an elite quarterback, and he should get through that, but between him running the ball, the team looking to get the running game involved, and a receiving core with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and Jameson Crowder, Knox may need to step in a bit more to help block against a Rams pass rush led by Aaron Donald.

Pick: Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Interceptions (-106) at Caesars

Not only is Stafford just a good quarterback, but he heads into this season with a notable elbow injury that’s in line with MLB players needing Tommy John surgery to correct it.

Sure, he has Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson at receiver, and he’ll be throwing the ball.

However, between Stafford’s natural ability and the Rams potentially looking toward a pitch count for Stafford’s throws, this could limit the chances the Bills get to pick the ball off.

Stafford can sometimes get erratic, throwing 17 interceptions last year, but perhaps this elbow injury, a solid running game, and shorter routes for his receivers will limit his exposure to a turnover.

Pick: Allen Robinson Under 56.5. Receiving Yards (-101) at Caesars

It’s about time Allen Robinson gets a quarterback that can deliver the ball to him through the air.

Fortunately for the Rams, Bills cornerback, Tre’Davious White is starting the year on the PUP. However, they’ll still have to go up against first-round rookie Kaiir Elam and a safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.

Piggybacking off of Stafford’s elbow injury, we may not see many shots down from the field, but to be fair, it is Stafford. If anyone can play through pain, it’s him.

In his first game with the team against a formidable opponent, there are plenty of reasons to see this total go under, and the -101 value helps.

Pick: Josh Allen Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+126) at Caesars

Picking Allen to go under 1.5 passing touchdowns may be a bit of a hot take, but there’s excellent value at plus money here.

While it’s more likely he goes over—you can see that by the betting odds—there’s definitely a route to this going under, starting with Allen himself.

Allen isn’t Lamar Jackson-like, but he can move with the ball. Last season, Allen had 122 carries for over 760 yards and six scores.

Since coming into the league, he’s scored no less than six on the ground and saw over 100 carries each year, with his rookie year falling just short with 89.

So, it wouldn’t be totally out of left field to see him with a stat line of two rushing touchdowns, and one passing touchdown, and still get the yardage he needs.

Also, the team will try to get something going on the ground, but the passing game will take precedence. It’ll be intriguing to see how they use rookie running back James Cook and if they try to give him some run to split time with Singletary eventually.

Again, it’s far more likely he passes this, but if you want a value bet, there are ways that this could happen.

See the full Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams match analysis, here!