The Bears lost 19-13 to the Colts on Monday Night Football
Caleb Williams was sacked seven times for 40 yards of loss
The Colts have one of the best passing defenses in the NFL
The Chicago Bears offense hasn’t looked strong all season. They struggled to move the ball against the Titans in Week 1, then allowed seven sacks in Week 2.
The offense looked horrendous throughout the game, and Caleb Williams hasn’t had time to throw the football. Williams is expected to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL very soon, but he can’t do anything without quality protection.
Williams has yet to throw a touchdown, and stats should be hard to find in Week 3 against the Colts. We have targeted a few props for Williams on bet365 Sportsbook. As a special offer, bet365 offers new users a $1,000 safety net bet or $150 in bonus bets. Use our promo code WSN365 to claim this offer.
Williams’ passing yards prop is set at 204.5, and we’re taking the under on Sunday. This is a meager total for any professional quarterback, but Williams has only thrown for 267 yards through two games.
He has faced two quality defenses between the Texans and Titans in AFC South. Yet, his stats are a sign that he hasn’t meshed with the Bears receivers and doesn’t have much time to throw the ball.
Chicago's offensive line has been one of the worst in the NFL through two games. For over twenty years, the Cold, Hard Football Facts have successfully predicted the outcome of NFL games and seasons.
One of Cold Hard’s 22 proprietary stats is the Offensive Hog Index, which measures the efficiency of an offensive line. The Bears have the 27th-ranked unit in the NFL, and this group allowed seven sacks for 40 total yards of loss.
The group isn’t overly talented, but Williams is also at fault. He holds onto the ball too long, resulting in sacks in the NFL. We’re not taking Williams to throw for 205 yards until he proves he can handle professional defenses.
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It may seem wild to take a prop under that is -240. Williams passing touchdowns prop is set at 1.5, and the under includes a hefty $2.40 price tag.
The juice is very hefty to play this wager as a straight bet, but it’s a great leg for an SGP. Williams hasn’t thrown a single touchdown pass this season, and we don’t believe he will have one against the Colts.
Indianapolis has allowed just 163 passing yards per game this season, which is eighth in the NFL. They have allowed 22.5 points per game, which is in the bottom half of the NFL.
This is slightly concerning, but the Bears have rarely played in the red zone this season. When they scored, it was on the ground and by the defense.
Williams should improve his passing game, and there are plenty of explosive receivers like DJ Moore, but it won’t be enough to surpass 1.5 touchdowns.
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The Colts are a very explosive team, and even though NFL MVP candidate Anthony Richardson has plenty of flaws, Indianapolis can still put up points at will. If the Colts succeed on offense, it will force the Bears to throw the ball down the field.
Williams didn’t throw an interception in the season's opening game against the Titans. However, he threw two picks last week against the Texans, and the Colts pass rush should apply similar pressure.
If Indianapolis gets pressure, Williams will throw the ball up for grabs, and the Colts will take advantage of his mistakes. One interception for Williams is listed at -125, which is an excellent deal for the quarterback.
However, if you want to take a slight risk, it’s worth sprinkling 2+ interceptions for +375. Rookie quarterbacks make many mistakes, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Williams have another tough outing before things improve.
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Passing Yards: 267
Passing Touchdowns: 0
Interceptions: 2
Carries: 10
Rushing Yards: 59
Rushing Touchdowns: 0
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