NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds, Predictions & Best Bets 2023

32 NFL teams made their best picks in the 2023 NFL Draft and are now ready for the upcoming season. While there have been underdog success stories such as sixth-round draft pick Tom Brady and seventh-round selection Shannon Sharpe, the favorites for the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year all went much earlier.

Even though quarterbacks historically dominate the MVP race, only nine QBs have won the OROTY since 2000. Nine running backs and five wide receivers have won, and no tight ends, fullbacks, or offensive linemen have earned the honor during that stretch (two fullbacks won the award previously; no tight ends or linemen ever have).

Here’s how the race for this year’s award is shaping up early on and a closer look at the top favorites. Check out our 2023 NFL offensive power rankings to see how these players will impact their team’s overall success.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Odds taken from  BetMGM

RB Bijan Robinson (+350)  Atlanta Falcons

Robinson was one of several shocking selections in the first round, not because he did not deserve to be drafted eighth overall, but because one of the Falcons’ only strengths last year was running the ball. Tyler Allgeier ran for 1,035 yards and set a franchise rookie record for his efforts.

Robinson will likely eat up a majority of Allgeier’s workload as a true three-down back that is ready to produce on day one. He racked up 1,580 yards and 18 rushing touchdowns in 12 games at Texas in his final year and has a lethal combination of shiftiness and power.

Atlanta proved last year that it could scheme up plays to get backs in space and let them produce, even without an effective passing game to hold the defense honest or a solid line to consistently open holes. Running back is also the easiest position to translate from college to the NFL, which is another help to Robinson. 

QB Bryce Young (+500) Carolina Panthers

Young would be one of the greatest prospects in the history of football if he was 6-foot-3 instead of 5-foot-11. Nevertheless, he went first overall because of his unreal production at Alabama and elite skillset.

To put the icing on the cake, Young reportedly recorded the highest score on the S2 mental cognition test ever since NFL teams started using it in 2015. He also threw for 8,200 yards and scored 86 total touchdowns in his final two years at Alabama and had a career postseason touchdown-to-interception ratio of 3:1.

Most first-overall picks don't step into great situations, but Young is one of the lucky few that is. He gets solid wideouts in Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, plus a sure-handed tight end in Hayden Hurst to throw to. He also has a Pro Bowl running back, Miles Sanders, in the backfield, and an offensive line that gave up the 11th-fewest sacks last year.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+650) Seattle Seahawks

Smith-Njigba will play the slot in a Seattle offense that already enlists DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Having those two on his flanks will open up the middle of the field for him and also allow him to get favorable matchups against opposing cornerbacks.

Smith-Njigba barely played at Ohio State in 2022 because of a nagging hamstring issue but had one of the most productive college seasons ever in 2021, hauling in 95 passes for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns. He capped off that year with a jaw-dropping 15 catches, 347 yards, and three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl against No. 11 Utah.

The Seahawks ranked 12th in passing yards and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns last season. He will have an immediate opportunity to produce, even if he is not the X or Z receiver like some of his other draftmates. 

QB CJ Stroud (+700) Houston Texas

Stroud told a touching story on draft night about how perseverance bred his success. He then encouraged everyone watching at home to follow their dreams and said that anything was possible with hard work.

Stroud’s faith in himself and his dedication will be put to the test in Houston. His receiving options of Robert Woods, Nico Collins, and Noah Brown form one of the worst three-man tandems in the league, although Dalton Schultz is a nice piece at tight end.

Stroud will benefit from how poor his defense is since he will have to air the ball out constantly to keep his team in contact. It wouldn’t be a surprise for him to finish the year with a ton of yards but more than a desirable number of turnovers. 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs (+900) Detroit Lions

Gibbs was another running back that was taken with a reach in the first round, four picks after Robinson went to the Falcons. His arrival in Detroit will see him compete with David Montgomery for the starting spot and likely spell the end for D'Andre Swift.

Gibbs is multi-talented; he can hit the hole and burst through the secondary with his 4.3 speed, catch passes out of the backfield, and he even returned kicks in college (though he likely won’t do that in the pros).

Detroit had one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL last season. Jared Goff proved that teams need to honor his ability as a passer, which will help out Gibbs as he works behind a line that Pro Football Focus graded the third-best in 2022.

QB Anthony Richardson (+900)  Indianapolis Colts

The Colts used the fourth pick to end speculation on where Richardson, considered the biggest boom-or-bust prospect in the draft, would end up. He will be tutored by head coach Shane Steichen, who spent the last two seasons developing Jalen Hurts as the Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator.

Richardson only started 13 games in college and embodied the duality of man with his performances. Sometimes he was breathtakingly excellent, other times he couldn’t complete a routine five-yard pass.

Richardson will need time to develop. He is an athletic freak that could easily assemble the best highlight reel of all first-round picks, but his stats will reflect his inconsistency.

Our Favorite Offensive Rookie of the Year Pick: Bijan Robinson (+350)

He’s the favorite for a reason. Young will be the most likely to challenge for the award but will have a bigger adjustment than Robinson who, again, is stepping into an offense that excelled running the ball last season and in a position that is easy to pick up at the next level. He also has a more prototypical NFL body than Young, who may struggle just to see over the line of scrimmage.