Best NFL Player Prop Bets Week 12

We’re thankful for Week 12 of the NFL season as this week kicked off with the Thanksgiving Day slate of games.

Here, we’ll look at the “normal slate” of games and discuss the best prop bets to make.

Let’s get to it. 

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans

Pick: Tyreek Hill Any Time TD (-150) at DraftKings

It’s almost impossible to stop Hill, and this week, he draws a matchup against the Houston Texans. 

The Texans cornerbacks Desmond King and Steven Nelson have played OK this year. Still, the Texans safeties, Jalen Pitre and Jonathan Owens haven’t.

King allowed 19 receptions on 27 targets, whereas Nelson allowed 22 catches on 36 targets and a touchdown.

The Texans' run defense is so bad that teams simply don’t need to throw against them. Sure, Nelson and King have played well, but you have to consider the lack of action they get compared to other cornerback duos throughout the league.

Hill has gone for at least 143 yards in four of his last seven games and has scored in back-to-back weeks.

Hill will dominate here. 

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Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos

Pick: Sam Darnold Under 0.5 Passing TDs (+129) at Caesars

Darnold will make his first start of the season in Week 12 against the Broncos, and boy, oh, boy, is this a bad first matchup to walk into. 

Quarterbacks average nearly 36 pass attempts against the Broncos, but they only allow 186.8 passing yards per game. They’ve surrendered eight passing touchdowns this season, the least in the league.

Darnold completed less than 60% of his passes in 2021 and had nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He had 21 turnover-worthy plays. 

He’s not passing against this Broncos team. 

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Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos

Pick: Russell Wilson Under 18.5 Completions (-105) at DraftKings

We’re going back to this game, and this time, looking at the quarterback for the Broncos, Russell Wilson.

This year, Wilson has completed 18 passes or less four times. The most completions he’s had in a game was in Week 1 against the Seahawks, completing 29 passes. 

Opposing quarterbacks attempt 34 passes and complete 23 of them per game against the Panthers.

The Broncos recently released running back Melvin Gordon. They have put their trust in Latavius Murray, with Marlon Mack backing him up.

The Panthers' defense has been competent enough this year, allowing just 220 passing yards per game.

Wilson and the Broncos should lead in this game despite a small spread. With that, they should just run the ball and drain the clock.

When Wilson has completed more than 18 passes, he’s attempted no less than 31 passes. The Broncos should look to establish the run here with their new-look backfield. 

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+136) at Caesars

With Matthew Stafford ruled out of this game, the Rams' hope to win went from minuscule to non-existent. 

With this, it’s safe to expect the Chiefs to run the ball more. While this is likely to be true, this is a great spot for Mahomes to have lower passing yards while still posting passing touchdowns. 

Mahomes has thrown for three or more touchdowns six times this season and three times over the last four games. 

We know that Mahomes has tight end Travis Kelce, but he’ll also have wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster back. 

Smith-Schuster has been quite involved in the offense, peaking at 12 targets in Week 9, and saw seven in four fives games between Week 3 and 7. 

The Rams have cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but the rest of the secondary players haven’t played either.

The other corners, Troy Hill and Derion Kendrick have allowed a combined 52 receptions on 77 targets. 

At home, the Chiefs will continue to throw here, spread the ball around the myriad of options, and let Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon run the clock out. 

Mahomes getting a plus price on the over for this prop is a bet you must make each time it’s available. 

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