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The Sunday slate of Week 9 in the NFL closes with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Tennessee Titans. The oddsmakers have the Titans as massive underdogs (12.5 points), and here, we’re going to look at some prop bets that make the most sense to make heading into this one.
Let’s jump in.
At home against the Titans, Mahomes will face a defense that ranks ninth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 254.7. The secondary of the Titans is OK, but their most involved players, like safety Kevin Byard and cornerbacks Roger McCreary, David Long, and Kristian Fulton, have been up and down this season.
The best matchup, though, comes with Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. He’ll be opposed mainly by Titans linebacker Zach Cunningham, and as we’ve seen this season, Kelce has been unstoppable.
The Chiefs also expect to have wide receiver Kadarius Toney out on the field, who will add a ton of speed to this offense.
Mahomes has thrown for three or more touchdowns in all but two games this season, and the Titans defense on the road doesn’t present a tall enough challenge to slow down Mahomes and this Chiefs offense that now has Toney to work with.
The Chiefs have played seven games this season, and Mahomes has completed a pass of 39 yards or longer in four of them. His longest completions in the other three games were 35 and 36 two additional times.
On passes of 20+ downfield, Mahomes has completed nine of 22 passes for 325 yards and a score.
His 22 attempts of 20+ yards rank 22nd in the league, and his completions rank 16th in the league.
Of course, you’d like to see those numbers higher with someone like Mahomes. Still, with guys like Marquez Vales-Scantling on the team, plus Toney needing to be accounted for close to the line of scrimmage with his speed, there are more than enough weapons against a Titans defense that has five players with 100 or more coverage snaps allowing double-digits yards per reception.
Over his last three games, Henry is averaging 30 carries per outing. On the season, he’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry and has posted 100+ rushing yards in four straight games.
Going up against the Chiefs with a double-digit spread, DraftKings Sportsbook is likely taking into account that the Titans may need to throw to stay in this one.
However, with Henry, the Titans will get him involved early to beat down this Chiefs defense that allows the third least rushing yards per game.
Remember, though, that the Chiefs can beat up on teams, so that rushing yards per game number is reflective of that and what oddsmakers expect.
Based on volume alone, Henry should pass this with ease.
After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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