Bills vs Chiefs Predictions, Odds, Picks

Written by: Mike Lukas
Updated October 14, 2022
5 min read
  • In Week 4, the 3-1 Bills blew out another NFL franchise, taking down the Texans, 40-0
  • The 2-2 KC Chiefs sit uncharacteristically at the bottom of the difficult AFC West

Bills vs Chiefs Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. Get a $1000 bonus at sign-up.

Bills vs Chiefs Point Spread Odds
Buffalo Bills +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

Bills Vs Chiefs Predictions

For the second time this season, the 3-1 Buffalo Bills blew out another NFL franchise, this time taking down the Houston Texans 40-0 in Week 4, the Bills quarterback Josh Allen finding wide receiver Stefon Diggs for 7 catches and 114 yards and tight end Dawson Knox for 5 catches, 37 yards, and 2 TDs, these Bills looking to be the next AFC team to beat up on the Chiefs.

The 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs sit uncharacteristically at the bottom of the difficult AFC West with a 30th ranked defense that allows over 31 points per game, so let’s hope quarterback Patrick Mahomes can find receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce more often, this Week 5 Sunday Night Football AFC matchup a potential preview of postseason things to come.

These two AFC rivals have faced each other 50 other times (including 4 postseason games), with the Kansas City Chiefs winning 23 of those games and the Buffalo Bills winning 26 of the games, plus there has been one tie.

Can Bills Quarterback Josh Allen Light Up the Chiefs’ Secondary?

With quarterback Josh Allen under center, the Buffalo Bills have snagged three offensively impressive wins in a row now, with two of those being shutouts – in Week 2 they beat the Dolphins 35-0 and in Week 4 they beat the Texans 40-0.

Now the Bills have to go face to face with the high-scoring Chiefs, who are tied with the Bills for points per game with 33.5, two offensive powerhouse’s with at least one major difference, that being that right now Kansas City has the second worst defense while Buffalo has the best.

The Chiefs allow opponents to gain almost 445 yards and score over 31 points per game, while the Bills only let the teams they play gain 216 yards and score 11 points per game, so this vast defensive disparity could be what makes the difference in this Week 5 SNF matchup.

Can Kansas City’s Defense Stop Buffalo’s Top-6 Offensive Attack?

With such a struggling defense, it might be tough for the Chiefs to stop Buffalo, who possess what has become the sixth-best offensive attack in the league, their squad able to score at will and with a defense that can shut a team out.

The Chiefs need a big game from coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, especially from the pass rush of DEs Chris Jones and Frank Clark and DTs Jarran Reed and Derrick Nnadi, who need to rediscover the intense and sack-producing pass rush they are totally capable of producing.

Kansas City has never had a problem outscoring their opponents, but this week could be different if they can’t get back on the field, so they must game plan an effective way to stop the Bills on third and fourth down or else if could come down to a shooting match they might not have enough playing time to win.

Bills Key Player: (WR) Stefon Diggs

For the last two seasons, the Buffalo Bills have had one of the better wide receivers in the league, Stefon Diggs, on their roster, the 6’ 191 pound speedster with some of the best hands in the business.

So far this season, Diggs and QB Josh Allen have been finding some success with their growing connection, completing 26 passes for 305 yards and 1 touchdown, averaging 11.7 yards per reception, their longest a 41-yarder.

Watch for Diggs to get open in this one, most likely matched up against Chiefs’ number one cornerback Charvarius Ward or else L’Jarius Sneed, two talented defenders that Diggs must get physical with right off the line of scrimmage.

Chiefs Key Player: (SS) Tyrann Mathieu

Becoming one of the better safeties in the league is a player known as the Honey Badger, strong safety Tyrann Mathieu earning that nickname back at LSU most likely since both creatures are known for their strength, ferocity, and toughness.

Mathieu sat out the first game of the season against the Browns on the COVID-19 reserve list after testing positive for the virus at the beginning of September, but since then he has proven to be a solid defensive team leader with enough football IQ to predict plays before they happen.

Watch for the Honey Badger on Sunday night – in the three games he’s played so far this season, Mathieu has posted 16 total tackles with one of those for a loss along with four passes defended and two interceptions, one of which he ran back for a touchdown.

How to Watch Bills vs Chiefs

Bills vs Chiefs Information
What Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
Where GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in KC, MO
When Sunday, October 10, 2021; 8:20 PM ET
How to watch NBC
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Mike Lukas

Sports Betting & Gambling Industry Analyst

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Mike Lukas is a retired standup comedian turned freelance writer now living in Dallas, Texas, originally from Cleveland, Ohio. His love for the game of football and all things Cleveland Browns turned Mike into a pro blogger years ago. Now Mike enjoys writing about all thirty-two NFL teams, hoping to help football gamblers gain a slight edge in their pursuit of the perfect wager.
Nationality: American
Education: N/A
Favourite Sportsbook: bet365 Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: Caesars Palace Casino
23 years
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