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Last week’s article highlighted Alexander Mattison, Josh Downs and Detroit’s DST, who were both part of a winning DFS lineup. Neither blew the roof off, but both still provided value for where they were drafted.
Still, the column wasn’t perfect. It rarely will be, but let’s try to get as close as possible to doing so in Week 7!
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I mentioned Sam Howell in my DFS Stacks article earlier this week, but he may be an even better play on his own as a value. The Commanders’ quarterback has thrown for six touchdowns over the last three weeks and should add to that total against a Giants’ defense that ranks middle of the pack in the category.
New York’s passing defense has played surprisingly well, but its pass rush still leaves an awful lot to be desired. It sits last in sacks per game, and that’s the difference for a quarterback like Howell, who has already been sacked a league-high 34 times. We have yet to see Howell stay relatively clean in the pocket, a luxury he may finally have against the Giants.
With a healthy receiving room and a seemingly rejuvenated Curtis Samuel, Howell should have a strong game in the Big Apple at a dirt-cheap DFS price. He is a better value on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel.
Geno Smith ($7,000) or Matthew Stafford ($6,700) are good values on FanDuel.
Truthfully, Jaleel McLaughlin is closer to a sleeper than a value. However, these titles can often be interchangeable when it comes to certain matchups and prices. When it comes to Green Bay’s rushing defense, all that normally matters is that you play a running back against it.
Despite the return of Javonte Williams, McLaughlin still played a season-high 40% of snaps in last week’s loss to Kansas City. It looks like he’s jumped veteran Samaje Perine on the depth chart and could continue to see his role grow in a lost season for Denver. McLaughlin has been explosive this season, with his yards per touch in the same range as Raheem Mostert and Nick Chubb.
The Packers are 29th in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season and allowed five receptions to Josh Jacobs in Week 5, tied for his second-highest total this season. McLaughlin is a better value on FanDuel.
The Cardinals have an interesting situation behind WR1 Marquise Brown. Michael Wilson and Rondale Moore both possess good arguments to be value plays at $3,800 and $3,500 price tags on DraftKings, respectively. Here’s why it’s OK to pay a bit more for Wilson.
Only 10 players average 17 yards per reception or more, with Wilson sitting right behind Cooper Kupp in the category. His big-play ability pairs well with Marquise Brown’s possession role, which likely contributes to why Wilson saw 88% of snaps in Week 6. That was more than Moore and just 2% shy of his season-high in Week 1.
Seattle allows the most points to opposing wide receivers. Moore is a tempting play due to his rushing upside while James Conner is sidelined, but Wilson’s big-play ability and size in the red zone is worth the value at $3,800 as well.
As I mentioned in my DFS Sleepers article, Mayer is not a sleeper after waking up in Week 6 to the tune of five catches for 75 yards, both representing season highs. What he now possesses is tremendous value for a dismal $2,700 price tag on DraftKings.
Mayer has seen his snaps climb week after week, culminating in his best percentage yet at 79% in Week 6. Snaps can be misleading for tight ends, however, since so many spend time in-line blocking. But Mayer still boasted a season-high 62.5% route run, which means he didn’t spend nearly as much time blocking as he did in weeks prior.
Now Mayer gets a Chicago defense that sits 27th in points allowed to tight ends, a much better matchup than he had last week against New England. The Notre Dame product will likely be a higher ownership play thanks to his waiver-wire popularity and breakout Week 6, but that doesn’t mean he won’t return tremendous value on his discount price tag.
Josh Dobbs could certainly have a good week, which is why he was mentioned in the aforementioned Sleepers article. But the odds are still stacked against him against this Seattle defense that is improving by the week.
Defensive tackle Jarran Reed is enjoying a bit of a resurgence, with three sacks over his last three games with seven QB hits on the season. Reed is also on pace for 10 TFLs, which would be his best total since his career-high 12 TFLs in 2018.
The defense also returned safety Jamal Adams last week, and first-round cornerback Devon Witherspoon continues to impress. It’s a unit that is beginning to gel together, shutting down a Bengals team in Week 6 after Cincinnati looked to have rounded the corner a week prior.
The Cardinals struggled to move the ball without James Conner in Week 6. While they should play better this week, it’s still tough to travel to Seattle with the ever-present crowd in Lumen Field.
Seattle is the second-most expensive defense on FanDuel but sits ninth on DraftKings. For FanDuel users, consider the Green Bay Packers DST at $3,900.
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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