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Two divisional first-place teams face off during the NFL’s Week 3 when the AFC East’s 8-3 Miami Dolphins play the NFC West’s 7-4 San Francisco 49ers, these Dolphins leaning heavily on QB Tua Tagovailoa’s third-ranked offense starring two deep threats (Jaylon Waddle and Tyreek Hill) facing a Niners group with QB Jimmy Garoppolo dishing it out to multiple playmakers.
It almost seems unfair that an already talented San Fran team (Jimmy G, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle) somehow also scored dual threat RB Christian McCaffrey in the middle of the season, a big deal for Dolphins DC Josh Boyer to handle since there are plenty of ways his 17th defense can get beaten, a group with CB Xavien Howard and free safety Jevon Holland.
When it comes to covering the spread, Miami has failed at it in five of their last six road games, and we think that trend will continue in Week 13, especially given two of their starting playmakers are listed as questionable to play – WR Tyreek Hill (undisclosed) and RB Raheem Mostert (knee) – both game-time decisions worth checking up on before you place your wager.
The 49ers’ defense is ranked best in the league, but a closer look shows a #1 run defense and an 11th-ranked pass defense, a sign that there could be trouble against the Dolphins 2nd ranked pass attack that can beat you deep (Waddle, Hill) or across the middle (TE Mike Gesicki), but to get the ball to them Tua must have time to throw and Niners DE Nick Bosa should make that difficult.
According to the books, six of San Francisco’s last seven games as home favorites have gone under the total points line, but it is Week 13 and these offenses are primed to score, with the Dolphins averaging 25.6 points per week and the 49ers’ offense averaging 22.6 points per game, that total of 48.2 well enough over what the oddsmakers predict to bet the over here.
As for these defenses, San Francisco’s allows the fewest points per game in the league, 15.7, and the Dolphins’ defense allows 23.3, which is 39 total points per game allowed, well under the bet here so something to consider if you think the Forty-Niners can shut down Tua’s machine and if Miami can game plan around Jimmy G’s multi-headed offensive monster, both tough to do.
The San Francisco 49ers have done well at home this season, now 4-1 at Levi’s Stadium in 2022 and 8-1 there in their last nine games, and it looks like on a $195 money line bet on the Niners the oddsmakers will pay out $100 plus your original investment, a decent wager considering they are on a four-game winning streak and their playmakers are starting to gel.
Miami Dolphins fans know that their team is hot right now on a five-game winning streak that does not look to be ending anytime soon, but they are the underdogs here so a $100 money line bet on them to win would payout $168 plus your initial wager, a great bet for fans who think HC Mike McDaniel is clever enough to outcoach his old 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan, both worthy game callers.
Levi's Stadium is in Santa Clara, CA, so weather should not be a major issue, but the 49ers are dealing with some injuries that might make a difference in this game, with eight players either out of on IR while four players are listed as questionable including star RB Christian McCaffrey (knee), DE Arik Armstead (foot), and QB Jimmy Garoppolo (knee), all coach’s game time decisions.
What: Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers
Where: Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA
When: Sunday, December 4, 2022, at 4:25 PM ET
Mike Lukas is a retired standup comedian turned freelance writer now living in Dallas, Texas, originally from Cleveland, Ohio. His love for the game of football and all things Cleveland Browns turned Mike into a pro blogger years ago. Now Mike enjoys writing about all thirty-two NFL teams, hoping to help football gamblers gain a slight edge in their pursuit of the perfect wager. Email: [email protected]More info on Mike Lukas
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