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We end Week 12 of the NFL season with the Jeff Saturday-led Indianapolis Colts hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Colts are 1-1 under Saturday and are coming off a one-point home loss to the now 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles.
The Steelers are coming off a home loss but scored 30 against the Bengals in a 37-30 battle.
Can Saturday get to 2-1? Let’s find out.
As short home favorites here, we’re going to back the team that, since the Saturday hire, has been playing excellent defense.
The Colts had 11 pressures against the Eagles, including four sacks, and had 13 pressures and three sacks against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10.
The Steelers had tremendous offensive production against the Bengals but scored just 10 points in the second half.
A big part of their offense is wide receiver George Pickens, but this week he draws a matchup with Colts cornerback Stephon Gilmore who hasn’t allowed a touchdown this season and has held opposing receivers to a 50% reception rate over his last two games.
The Colts have wanted to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor, but the Steelers are fairly stout against the run, giving up 103.4 yards per game and just 67 over their past three games.
Colts quarterback Matt Ryan will need to throw in this one. Against the Steelers cornerbacks, that should be easy to accomplish.
The Steelers have allowed 22 touchdowns in coverage this year, and receivers have a 66.2% reception rate against them.
Look for the Colts to cover here.
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With this total getting under 40, we feel comfortable taking the over.
As mentioned, the Colts will need to pass in this one, and given their receivers and Ryan’s recent performances, we feel OK with that.
Ryan has completed 44 of 60 passes over the last two weeks and has just one turnover-worthy play. He’s taking care of the ball.
Meanwhile, the Steelers will have a tough matchup with Pickens and Gilmore. However, they still have wide receiver Diontae Johnson, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and running back Najee Harris, who’s coming off a two-touchdown game.
This matchup has enough offensive weapons for these teams to surpass 39 combined points.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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