To round out Week 10 of the NFL season, we have an NFC East divisional matchup as the Washington Commanders take on the Philadelphia Eagles on their home field.
The Eagles are looking to go 9-0, but can the Commanders spoil that? Let’s find out.
Laying 11 points in a divisional matchup is always tricky, especially considering the Eagles didn’t cover against the Houston Texans.
However, the Eagles are at home here, coming off an elongated break, and facing a Commanders defense that may have solid per-game statistics in their favor but have individual players that don’t match up well with the Eagles.
For example, the Commanders starting cornerbacks are Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste. Fuller allows over 16 yards per catch and has given up three touchdowns. St-Juste allows nearly 16 yards per catch, and 117 of the 390 yards he’s given up this season are after the catch.
In the trenches, the Commanders are getting a great season out of Charles Leno. Still, the rest of the offensive line is about average. Against an Eagles pass rush that includes Brandon Graham, Javon Hargrave, and Haason Reddick, this could pose an issue.
At quarterback, it’s nice to see Taylor Heinecke getting another crack at it with Washington. Still, he’s not nearly good enough to take on this Eagles secondary led by Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddox.
This season, Heinicke has nine turnover-worthy plays on 92 attempts. That 8.2% rate is the highest in the NFL amongst all quarterbacks, with at least 100 dropbacks.
The Commanders will attempt to run the ball with Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson to win the time of possession, but if they make a single mistake, this game could end up almost like a mirror image of the Eagles/Texans game.
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The Commanders give up 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. That rate is tied for the fifth-highest in the NFL.
Also, the Eagles are allowing teams to run on them, giving up 5.2 yards per carry on the year, 5.4 over their last three games, and 5.1 at home.
The Eagles pass/run ratio is 54/46, while the Commanders are 64/36. The Commanders throw so much due to being behind, but their goal will be to run the ball and, as mentioned, win the time of possession.
For the Eagles, they’ll be able to score in multiple ways against the Commanders, but like any team that’s up, when they’re up, they’ll do more running with quarterback Jalen Hurts and running back Miles Sanders.
The Commanders throw a lot, but you shouldn’t be confident in Heinicke being able to get anything done with that. The Eagles have 12 interceptions, 10 touchdowns, and 25 pass breakups this year. It could spell disaster when Heinicke throws, given his league-leading turnover-worthy play rate.
The Eagles win this won, 27-13.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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