NFL Week 5 Best Prop Bets: Expect the Bills to Bounce Back

• Josh Allen and the Bills will battle the Texans in Houston

• Sam Darnold continues to dominate for the Vikings

• Jayden Daniels has been cashing tickets for bettors 

We’re only in Week 5, but we can already identify the Super Bowl LIX contenders and pretenders. We have also determined which players are worth trusting in the prop betting markets. 

This week, we have targeted three players with significant betting value. Josh Allen is in a great bounce-back spot against the Texans. 

Sam Darnold has been dominant this season, leading the Vikings to a perfect record. The final player we’re betting on is Jayden Daniels, the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year after three dominant weeks. 

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Josh Allen Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Josh Allen is positioned second in the NFL MVP race behind Patrick Mahomes. Allen has improved drastically from his first NFL season to now, which is evident by his lack of turnovers in 2024. 

Allen has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions in 2024. He has also racked up 814 yards through the air and has the best QBR in the NFL at 82.3. 

It can be wise to bet on star players coming off lackluster performances. Allen only threw for 180 yards against Houston and completed 55.2% of his passes. 

While Houston has looked decent on defense, Allen and the Bills' offense have a considerable advantage. The Cold, Hard Football Facts are NFL proprietary stats that have helped bettors for nearly two decades. 

The Texans rank 17th in Defensive Passer Rating and 15th in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. If Buffalo can generate a solid run game, it will open up Allen to take shots down the field and surpass his 230.5 passing yards line. 

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Sam Darnold Under 219.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Sam Darnold is currently fifth on the MVP board with 11/1 odds. The quarterback has done an excellent job responding to adversity over his career. 

He went from seeing ghosts with the Jets to being one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. This season, he has thrown for 932 yards and 11 touchdowns. 

He has the third-best QBR in the league at 73.5. Darnold's passing yards have fluctuated, and while he has been efficient, we don’t believe he will exceed his line on Sunday. 

The Vikings will battle the Jets, who are notorious for phenomenal defense, so it will take a lot of work for Minnesota to move the ball. 

New York is seventh in Defensive Passer Rating and sixth in Defensive Passer Rating. They’re also first in Defensive Real Passing Yards/Attempt, so they don’t allow big plays down the field. 

Darnold won’t go over his passing yards line if the Vikings can't stretch the field. 

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Jayden Daniels Anytime Touchdown (+135) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jayden Daniels looks like the strongest rookie in the entire class. He has been efficient through the air and on the ground. 

The quarterback is 12th in passing yards with 897 on the season. He is also fourth in QBR at 73.3. He has excelled through the air but has also been dominant in running the football. 

Daniels has carried the ball 46 times for 218 yards with four touchdowns. He has scored in three of four games and has one multi-touchdown contest. 

While Daniels has dominated the past few weeks, he hasn’t played tough teams. The Commanders face the Browns this week, and Cleveland will have the best defense Daniels has seen. 

If the Browns get to Daniels, he will be quick to scramble. This will be especially true around the goal line. Considering Daniels has scored in three of four NFL games, his +135 odds have a lot of value.

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