Ravens vs. Bills Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Expect Masterclass Performance from Jackson

• Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are listed as the betting favorites to win the MVP award

• Buffalo opened as a short favorite and immediately flipped to an underdog

• The Bills secondary ranks 19th overall in Def Pass EPA and 24th in Def Pass Success Rate

While the other three divisional matchups have blowout potential, the battle between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills is projected to be a close and exciting one. Buffalo originally opened up as a short favorite before bettors quickly flipped them to an underdog. With their secondary harshly regressing in coverage, the Bills will struggle to slow down the Ravens revamped pass attack and may find themselves falling quickly behind on the scoreboard.

Ravens vs. Bills Odds 

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Ravens vs. Bills My Pick

• My Pick: Baltimore Ravens Moneyline (-115) at Caesars

With Zay Flowers expected to suit up, the front runner for the MVP award Lamar Jackson will have all of his tools at his disposal to help pick apart the Bills gaps in coverage. The Bills secondary has steadily regressed throughout the year as they currently rank 19th overall in Def Pass EPA and 24th in Def Pass Success Rate. Not only is Buffalo prone to getting beat down the field, but their own offense will struggle to match their level of production as they face off against a defense who ranks top-12 in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, and Adjusted Sack Rate.

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Ravens vs. Bills Predictions 

While Lamar is in a position to thrive, Derrick Henry may take a backseat as he is tasked with a much more difficult assignment. The Bills defense have excelled at stopping the run this season as their front seven ranks top-11 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. That may lead to an uptick in pass attempts for Lamar, shading value towards the over on his passing props.

On the other side of the field, the Buffalo Bills starting running back James Cook is also poised for an underwhelming outing. The Ravens front seven have been the strength of their defense as they enter the divisional round of the playoffs ranked top-3 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. With their linebackers anchored across the middle, the quality of Cook’s rushing lanes drastically decreases.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Best Player Props

Lamar Jackson Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only has Buffalo’s secondary struggled in coverage, but their defensive line has steadily regressed in their efforts of bringing down the quarterback as the Bills rank 20th overall in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. This gives Lamar an opportunity to operate in a clean pocket while his pass catchers have extra time in the open field to create separation from the Bills coverage, drastically increasing the quality of his passing lanes. Escalator bet Lamar’s passing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs.

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Derrick Henry Longest Rush Under 19.5 Yards (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

A major reason for the Bills struggles with getting to the quarterback stems from their scheme as they anchor their linebackers across the middle at a high rate while only crashing down their front four. With their linebackers anchored in coverage, this hurts Derrick Henry’s chances of generating an explosive run as he will have to combat against contact at multiple levels of the defense. Henry may also see a decrease in rush attempts, increasing the likelihood of him staying under this total.

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James Cook Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

James Cook may also find it tough to generate rush production as he faces off against a Ravens front seven who ranks first overall in Def Rush Success Rate, third in Def Rush EPA, and fourth in Def Rush DVOA. Baltimore’s defensive scheme mirrors Buffalo’s as they also anchor their linebackers across the middle which lessens the quality of Cook’s rushing lanes when he gets past the trenches. Expect Cook to be bottled up at a consistent rate, shading value towards the under on his rushing yardage prop.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills How to Watch

• When: Sunday, January 19

• Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

• Where to Watch: CBS

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Injuries

Baltimore Ravens

• WR Zay Flowers - Questionable

Buffalo Bills

• RB Ray Davis - Questionable

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