Mike Tomlin is 0-5 on the road in a divisional TNF matchup
The Browns are just 3-7 ATS compared to the Steelers at 8-2 ATS
This is the first of two meetings in two and a half weeks for the franchises
The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) will travel to face the Cleveland Browns (2-8) in an AFC North rivalry on Thursday Night Football. As the two teams prepare to head into battle, we’ve found the best player props and betting picks for the matchup.
Odds for the Steelers vs Browns TNF matchup are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook. Head over to FanDuel and claim $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Points Total |
---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Steelers | -3.5 (-105) | -184 | Over 36.5 (-115) |
Cleveland Browns | +3.5 (-115) | +154 | Under 36.5 (-105) |
The Steelers are 4-0 with Russell Wilson under center. While he hasn’t been incredible and completed just over 60 percent of his passes, he opened up the downfield passing attack and isn’t committing back-breaking mistakes.
Pittsburgh also ranks seventh in defensive EPA per play and holds its opponents to the fifth-fewest yards per rush attempt. They won five games in a row and only gave up more than 20 points in one of those games, plus they’re 4-1 on the road.
On the flip side, the Browns also look like a much better team with new QB Jameis Winston under center in place of the injured Deshaun Watson. Winston averaged 321.3 passing yards and racked up six touchdowns and three interceptions in three games in charge of the Cleveland offense, which was held to 24 total points the last two weeks after it hung 29 on the Baltimore Ravens in Winston’s first start.
Whereas the Browns are known for playing outstanding defense, they’re only 20th in EPA per play thus far. However, they get to face a division rival at home on a short week, which gives them a contextual advantage.
The Steelers are the much better team, but they never won a road divisional TNF matchup in their franchise’s history (0-7). That’s a daunting precedent to overcome in a division that’s known for cannibalizing itself.
That said, while Winston has provided life to the Browns’ offense, it hasn’t resulted in a higher-scoring output. Pittsburgh is the superior team and is in a solid spot to win and cover in a competitive matchup.
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As we mentioned, Winston is averaging more than 300 yards per game and cleared this line in all three starts for the Browns. He’s a risk-taker and will push the ball down the field even if it means he commits some turnovers.
Pittsburgh is going to be the aggressor as the better team, and it will be on the Browns to respond in kind. Winston threw the ball at least 41 times in all three starts and should have the workload to get past this total.
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Pickens is unquestionably Wilson’s favorite target and just caught 12 targets and eight receptions for 89 yards in last week’s win against the Baltimore Ravens.
Pickens went over this line and caught at least 74 yards worth of passes in all four games with Wilson under center. The Browns rank near the top of the league in passing yards allowed per attempt and completion percentage allowed, but the Steelers’ concerted effort to get him the ball should be enough for him to beat this low line.
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Harris is having one of the best stretches in recent memory, going over this line six times in 10 games and averaging 70.8 rushing yards per game. He had three straight 100-yard weeks spanning Weeks 6-8 and has maintained a heavy workload despite the quarterback change.
The Browns are only 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.8. They also just gave up 214 yards and three touchdowns to the New Orleans Saints last week, including 67 on 16 carries by starting back Alvin Kamara.
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When: Thursday, Nov. 21 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
Most major NFL betting sites have the Steelers favored by 3.5 points. The exception and the best deal for Browns bettors is offered by ESPN Bet, who has the Browns at +4 (-115).
Steelers bettors can find them at -3.5 (-110) at most sportsbooks, including BetMGM, bet365, and others.
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Steelers Injuries
Alex Highsmith (LB) - Doubtful (ankle)
Browns Injuries
Myles Garrett (DE) - Questionable (hip)
Elijah Moore (WR) - Questionable (shoulder)
David Njoku (TE) - Questionable (knee)
Jedrick Wills Jr. (OT) - Questionable
Joel Bitonio (OG) - Questionable
Greg Newsome II (CB) - Questionable (shoulder)
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