Balance. Equality. Symmetry. All qualities that represent a truly divine life. And also, the most thrilling Super Bowl prop bet you’ll place in February.
That’s right, Super Bowl betting starts before the ball is kicked off with the pregame coin toss. Bettors can choose “heads” or “tails” and will know whether they won or lost before a single second comes off of the game clock.
Now ask yourself, are we really going to go in-depth over something as simple as a coin toss? Surely we wouldn’t waste our time like that.
Wrong! That’s exactly what we intend to do right here and right now as we prepare for the Super Bowl coin toss, the best prop betting action that money has to buy.
To understand a coin toss, we need to first acknowledge its anatomy. Yes, seriously.
A coin has two sides, meaning there are two options to pick from—head and tails. While it may seem as if both sides have an equal chance of turning the lucky side up, that isn’t the case.
The Stanford studies found that a coin has about a 51 percent chance of landing on the same side it started on. The sides of a coin also have different weights, meaning they have less pull down to earth, and the heavier side has a greater chance of landing on the bottom.
Super Bowl coins are usually commemorative, so instead of glancing down at Abraham Lincoln or George Washington, players will see the Super Bowl trophy or the NFL logo. These once again affect the weight distribution and skew the supposed “50-50” nature of the toss.
There are also a variety of factors on the toss that impact the result, including launch position, the force of the flip, number of rotations, air resistance, wind, and manufacturing differences.
A perfectly-flipped coin without any wobble will land on the same side approximately 51 percent of the time. One that isn’t struck cleanly by the thumb will wobble and will offset the imbalances that make this an unequal proposition and actually make it more fair.
So, a buff referee who never missed an arm day and strikes the coin cleanly will actually introduce a small level of bias.
An older ref who was in college during the Ice Bowl will probably hit the coin with less ferocity, thereby making it more 50/50.
Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins
Let’s be honest—if the odds are actually 50/50, then the betting odds should be +100/+100.
If the chances are 51/49 like studies show, then the betting odds should be -104/+104.
Neither will be the case.
Online sportsbooks need to get their cut of the pie, so most (but not all) will juice up the odds with a vig.
Each site will offer a different price, but by comparing them against one another, bettors can find the best deal for their Super Bowl prop bets.
Result | FanDuel | BetMGM | bet365 |
---|---|---|---|
Heads | -104 BET HERE | -102 BET HERE | +100 BET HERE |
Tails | -104 BET HERE | -102 BET HERE | +100 BET HERE |
Has anyone ever told you that “tails never fails?” They’re right! Kind of.
Tails beat out heads 30-28 across 58 Super Bowls, giving it a 51.7 percent win rate (right in line with the theoretical expectation). However, the Kansas City Chiefs won the last Super Bowl coin toss with a “heads” call.
The longest streak happened recently when tails turned up five times in a row from Super Bowl XLVII-LI.
Heads’ longest consecutive streak is four Super Bowls.
Here’s where things get interesting: winning the coin toss is a kiss of death.
Teams that won the coin toss only went 27-31 (46.5 percent) in Super Bowls. Even worse, teams that won the toss lost the Super Bowl from 2015-2023 until the Chiefs won the toss and the Big Game in the last two years.
Here’s a look at the history of the Super Bowl coin toss in the last 15 years.
Super Bowl | Date | Teams | Head or Tails | Toss Winner | Super Bowl Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LVII | 2024 | Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers | Heads | Chiefs | Chiefs |
LVII | 2023 | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles | Tails | Chiefs | Chiefs |
LVI | 2022 | Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals | Heads | Bengals | Rams |
LV | 2021 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs | Heads | Chiefs | Buccaneers |
LIV | 2020 | Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers | Tails | 49ers | Chiefs |
LIII | 2019 | New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams | Tails | Rams | Patriots |
LII | 2018 | Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots | Heads | Patriots | Eagles |
LI | 2017 | New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons | Tails | Falcons | Patriots |
L | 2016 | Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers | Tails | Panthers | Broncos |
XLIX | 2015 | New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks | Tails | Seahawks | Patriots |
XLVIII | 2014 | Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos | Tails | Seahawks | Seahawks |
XLVII | 2013 | Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers | Heads | Ravens | Ravens |
XLVI | 2012 | New York Giants vs. New England Patriots | Heads | Patriots | Giants |
XLV | 2011 | Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | Heads | Packers | Packers |
XLIV | 2010 | New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts | Heads | Saints | Saints |
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