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Super Bowl Coin Toss Odds: The Simplest But Most Exciting NFL Prop Bet

Published February 3, 2025
5 min read

Balance. Equality. Symmetry. All qualities that represent a truly divine life. And also, the most thrilling Super Bowl prop bet you’ll place in February.

That’s right, Super Bowl betting starts before the ball is kicked off with the pregame coin toss. Bettors can choose “heads” or “tails” and will know whether they won or lost before a single second comes off of the game clock. 

Now ask yourself, are we really going to go in-depth over something as simple as a coin toss? Surely we wouldn’t waste our time like that.

Wrong! That’s exactly what we intend to do right here and right now as we prepare for the Super Bowl coin toss, the best prop betting action that money has to buy.

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Super Bowl Coin Toss Odds Predictions

How to Pick the Winning Super Bowl Coin Toss

To understand a coin toss, we need to first acknowledge its anatomy. Yes, seriously.

A coin has two sides, meaning there are two options to pick from—head and tails. While it may seem as if both sides have an equal chance of turning the lucky side up, that isn’t the case.

The Stanford studies found that a coin has about a 51 percent chance of landing on the same side it started on. The sides of a coin also have different weights, meaning they have less pull down to earth, and the heavier side has a greater chance of landing on the bottom.

Super Bowl coins are usually commemorative, so instead of glancing down at Abraham Lincoln or George Washington, players will see the Super Bowl trophy or the NFL logo. These once again affect the weight distribution and skew the supposed “50-50” nature of the toss.

There are also a variety of factors on the toss that impact the result, including launch position, the force of the flip, number of rotations, air resistance, wind, and manufacturing differences. 

A perfectly-flipped coin without any wobble will land on the same side approximately 51 percent of the time. One that isn’t struck cleanly by the thumb will wobble and will offset the imbalances that make this an unequal proposition and actually make it more fair.  

So, a buff referee who never missed an arm day and strikes the coin cleanly will actually introduce a small level of bias. 

An older ref who was in college during the Ice Bowl will probably hit the coin with less ferocity, thereby making it more 50/50.

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Super Bowl Coin Toss Odds

Let’s be honest—if the odds are actually 50/50, then the betting odds should be +100/+100.

If the chances are 51/49 like studies show, then the betting odds should be -104/+104. 

Neither will be the case.

Online sportsbooks need to get their cut of the pie, so most (but not all) will juice up the odds with a vig. 

Each site will offer a different price, but by comparing them against one another, bettors can find the best deal for their Super Bowl prop bets.

ResultFanDuelBetMGMbet365
Heads-104
BET HERE
-102
BET HERE
+100
BET HERE
Tails-104
BET HERE
-102
BET HERE
+100
BET HERE

Super Bowl Coin Toss History

Has anyone ever told you that “tails never fails?” They’re right! Kind of.

Tails beat out heads 30-28 across 58 Super Bowls, giving it a 51.7 percent win rate (right in line with the theoretical expectation). However, the Kansas City Chiefs won the last Super Bowl coin toss with a “heads” call.

The longest streak happened recently when tails turned up five times in a row from Super Bowl XLVII-LI. 

Heads’ longest consecutive streak is four Super Bowls.

Here’s where things get interesting: winning the coin toss is a kiss of death.

Teams that won the coin toss only went 27-31 (46.5 percent) in Super Bowls. Even worse, teams that won the toss lost the Super Bowl from 2015-2023 until the Chiefs won the toss and the Big Game in the last two years.

Here’s a look at the history of the Super Bowl coin toss in the last 15 years.

Super BowlDateTeamsHead or TailsToss WinnerSuper Bowl Winner
LVII2024Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ersHeadsChiefsChiefs
LVII2023Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia EaglesTailsChiefsChiefs
LVI2022Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati BengalsHeadsBengalsRams
LV2021Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City ChiefsHeadsChiefsBuccaneers
LIV2020Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ersTails49ersChiefs
LIII2019New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles RamsTailsRamsPatriots
LII2018Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England PatriotsHeadsPatriotsEagles
LI2017New England Patriots vs. Atlanta FalconsTailsFalconsPatriots
L2016Denver Broncos vs. Carolina PanthersTailsPanthersBroncos
XLIX2015New England Patriots vs. Seattle SeahawksTailsSeahawksPatriots
XLVIII2014Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver BroncosTailsSeahawksSeahawks
XLVII2013Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ersHeadsRavensRavens
XLVI2012New York Giants vs. New England PatriotsHeadsPatriotsGiants
XLV2011Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh SteelersHeadsPackersPackers 
XLIV2010New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis ColtsHeadsSaintsSaints

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Grant Mitchell

Grant Mitchell

Sports Betting Analyst & On-Air Host

Expertise:
NBA
NCAAB
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NFL
Online Sports Betting
Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field. In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
Email: [email protected]
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Sports Media and Analytics
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
Experience: 4 years
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