Thursday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets Week 12

Thursday Night Football in Week 12 of the NFL season is special—it’s Thanksgiving Day and we have three games instead of a lone game. 

With three games happening, we have the best moneyline/spread/totals bet to make for each of them. 

Let’s dive in, and make some money on Thanksgiving Day while enjoying our dinner!

Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills Best Bet

Bills -9.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Thanks to an endless stream of snowfall in Buffalo, New York, the Bills had to “host” the Cleveland Browns in Detroit in Week 11, just days ago. 

The team is back in Detroit, playing the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

The Lions have been winning games recently, but their defense is not even remotely in the realm of being good enough to stop this Bills offense. 

As is, the Lions will likely be without cornerback Jeff Okudah, as he’s listed as doubtful for this one. That leaves Amani Oruwaryie and Jerry Jacobs as the starting outside cornerbacks. Jacobs has played just over 120 snaps as a wide cornerback this season. At the same time, Oruwariye has allowed 75% of his targets to result in reception and has also given up four touchdowns.

The Bills' defense has dealt with injuries and while the Lions have a passing attack that has some fine weapons, what helps them out is having a running game of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift (to a lesser extent) help open up their offense. 

This season, though, the Bills allow the eighth-least rushing yards per game at just over 106. 

The Lions should be able to scrape some scores at home, but this Bills offense should go up and down the field easily. 

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Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Best Bet

Giants +9.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Make no mistake—the Cowboys are easily the better team here. 

However, these two offenses will approach the game in a way that should result in the Giants staying within 10 points.

The Cowboys will want to pass the ball, sure, but they’ll also look to keep getting Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott involved.

However, the Giants' strength on defense is along their defensive line with Oshane Ximines, Dexter Lawrence, and Leonard Williams. These players can both rush the passer and play above-average run defense. 

Meanwhile, the Cowboys' strength on defense comes in coverage and pass rush. The Giants' strength on offense is getting running back Saquon Barkley involved.

There’s a chance the Cowboys could steamroll past that and put the Giants in a position to throw, but they allow over 136 rushing yards per game.

The Giants should be able to run successfully and utilize the passing game enough to help move the chains. 

In the end, the Giants will lose the game, but they’ll keep it within a touchdown or so and cover thanks to their rushing-focused offense and the Cowboys' desire to run the ball draining the clock. 

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Minnesota Vikings vs. New England Patriots

Vikings -2.5 (-105) at Caesars 

To close out Thanksgiving Day, we have the Vikings hosting the Patriots. Both teams are coming off underwhelming performances on offense, with each scoring three points. The Patriots won their game 10-3 over the Jets last week, thanks to a punt return with less than 30 seconds to go in the game.

As for the Vikings, they got demolished by the Cowboys, 40-3. It was tough to watch.

It can be hard to lay points here, but the Vikings should be able to rebound and cover. 

The one part about this pick that causes some trepidation is the Vikings without left tackle Christian Darrisaw, arguably the best-left tackle in football this year.

The backup, Blake Brandel, was a sixth-round pick in 2020 and isn’t someone the team can rely on. However, they have solid enough offensive linemen besides Darrisaw in Ezra Cleveland, Brian O’Neill, and Garrett Bradbury that they should hold up against a Patriots pass rush consisting of Josh Uche, Deatrich Wise Jr., and Matthew Judon.

Yes, all three of them are above-average pass rushers. Still, the Cowboys managed seven sacks on Cousins thanks to the presence of Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. 

Also, the Vikings will have a safe matchup to look forward to in the passing game—Justin Jefferson against Jalen Mills. 

The Patriots' offense has been up and down recently, with a big part of their production coming from the running game. 

While potent, if the Vikings can pass on the Patriots and also run well with Dalvin Cook and take the lead, the Patriots may not be able to rely on it as much and make Mac Jones throw, and he’ll need to better than his four-touchdown self this season—we’re not confident in that. 

Lay the points at home. 

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