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Thursday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets Week 4

Written by: Richard Janvrin
Updated October 14, 2022
12 min read
Tnf Best Bets Week 4 Duke Riley

After a sluggish Thursday Night Football matchup to start Week 3 between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, we’re back to what should be a stellar game.

At home, the Cincinnati Bengals are coming off their first win over the New York Jets in a relatively easy game.

The Dolphins beat the unbeatable—the Buffalo Bills—on their home turf in the blazing Miami heat.

How do these two teams’ matchup heading into Cincinnati? Let’s see.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins Best Bets

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110) at FanDuel

After beating the Bills and the Bengals getting their first win over the Jets, you may wonder why we’re going with the Bengals here at -3.

You may also be wondering how on earth the Bengals are favored.

These are fair questions, but hear us out.

Yes, the Dolphins did win decisively, but we can’t avoid the fact that the heat in Miami massively impacted the Bills. Multiple players, including wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Isaiah McKenzie, were drained, possibly with heat stroke.

On top of that, the Bills were without five defensive starters.

So yes, the Dolphins won, but as with any game in football, there are caveats.

For the Bengals, the offense has had trouble going but somewhat woke up this week. Interestingly, running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase was relatively quiet, though Chase did get a touchdown.

Looking at these two teams on paper matching up, the Bengals receiver should be in for a squishy matchup. The Dolphins have some great names on their secondary, including cornerback Xavien Howard. Still, they allow their fair share of yards—as a unit, they allow almost 300 passing yards per game.

  • Howard: 10 targets, six catches, 125 yards, two touchdowns
  • Cornerback Nik Needham: Seven targets, six catches, 108 yards, one touchdown

Against a Bengals receiver core with three guys capable of going off at any time—Tyler Boyd went over 100 in Week 3—this could be a lot for them to match up with as this game trades off touchdowns.

Also, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was shaken up after Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano hit him. He came back to the game, but you have to consider the idea of that lingering in some ways.

If Mixon can get something going against them—they allow 116 yards per game—that’ll only add icing to the cake.

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Over 47.5 (-110) at DraftKings

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We’ve discussed the leakiness of the Dolphins secondary and how the Bengals are in a great position to put up some points.

While the Bengals secondary and pass rush may be slightly better, the Dolphins offense has shown to be a feared unit in the NFL.

The Bengals have cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple, along with safeties Von Bell and Jessie Bates III. Still, these aren’t players we should see as game-long threats against Dolphins receivers Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.

Both of these are going to score plenty of points.

If, by the end of the game, they both had 25+, it wouldn’t be at all surprising. These offenses are ready to roll.

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AUTHOR

Richard Janvrin

567 Articles

After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.

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