Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 17: Expect a Lack of Pass Production Between Both Quarterbacks

• Caleb Williams odds to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award continue to plummet

• The Seattle Seahawks are currently out of the playoff picture with two weeks left in the season

• Seattle’s defensive line ranks above league average in Def Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate

After entering the year listed as the betting favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, Caleb Williams has severely underwhelmed as he continues to trickle down the oddsboard. While it’s apparent he has a ways to go with his development, his offensive line also does him no favors as they routinely get pushed back from the snap. With the Seahawks front line grading out very well in Def Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate, expect another underwhelming performance from the Bears rookie quarterback.

Geno Smith may also find it tough to generate pass production as he faces off against a Bears secondary who ranks above league average in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA. The Seahawks offensive line also ranks near dead last in Off Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards and are tasked with having to hold their ground against a front seven who excel at generating pressure. When in a collapsing pocket, Smith will struggle to connect with his pass catchers while throwing into low quality passing lanes.

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Caleb Williams Under 215.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s been a rough year for Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears pass attack as they head into Thursday night ranked well below league average in Off Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Even with a deep group of pass catchers surrounding him, Williams has struggled with airing out the ball as he averages just 218.1 passing yards per game and a 62.2% completion percentage. Against Seattle, expect Williams to continue to underwhelm as the Seahawks secondary ranks top-15 in Def Pass DVOA and EPA.

To make matters worse for Williams, he will find himself under relentless pressure as his offensive line continues to struggle with holding their ground in pass protection as their near dead last mark in Off Adjusted Sack Rate indicates. Not only will this force Williams to extend plays with his legs, but it also gives his pass catchers less time in the open field to create separation from the Seahawks coverage. Bet the under on Williams passing yardage prop while sprinkling smaller wagers on his alternate totals as well.

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D’Andre Swift Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-128) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

While the Seahawks secondary has thrived in coverage, their front seven has struggled to stop the run. Especially when in the middle of the field as the Seahawks defense ranks 22nd in Def Rush Success Rate. This indicates the Seahawks struggle to stop opposing running backs from cutting half the distance to gain on first and second down, as well as convert on later downs. With their pass attack projected to underwhelm, expect the Bears to call a heavier dose of the run to help sustain drives down the field.

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Geno Smith Under 259.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With only two weeks left in the regular season, the Seattle Seahawks are in desperate need of securing the win on Thursday night as they are currently out of the playoff picture. Not only do the Los Angeles Rams hold a one game lead over Seattle for first in the NFC West, but the Commanders also have a two game lead over the Seahawks in the wildcard standings for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs. In order to secure the win, the Seahawks will need to maximize on the efficiency of their offensive possessions.

That may result in an uptick in rush attempts for their running backs as the Bears secondary has continued to excel in coverage this season. As of writing, the Bears back end ranks well above league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. A sharp contrast from their front seven who ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Adjusted Line Yards. With potentially less pass attempts, the likelihood of Geno Smith staying under the total on his passing yardage prop drastically increases.

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