ATP Stockholm, Antwerp & Naples: Shapovalov Still Has an Outside Chance of Making Those ATP Finals

• Giron has outside chance
• Read the Runes with Monteiro
• Huesler, Otte parlay pick
• Shapovalov can again shine in Stockholm

ATP Stockholm, Antwerp & Naples Picks

Marcos Giron to beat Sebastian Korda at +184 at FanDuel

Thiago Monteiro (+3.5) to beat Holger Rune on game handicap at +110 at BetMGM

Marc-Andrea Huesler & Oscar Otte win parlay at +137 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Denis Shapovalov to win the Stockholm Open at +650 at PointsBet 

Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Korda

Korda comes to Antwerp straight from the final of Gijon, where he was soundly beaten by Andrey Rublev.

That was a decent week for the American but he’s got a tricky encounter first up in Belgium – his head-to-head with Giron stands at 1-1, although they are yet to meet indoors.

Giron has also been a decent form of late, reaching the final in San Diego. Admittedly, that was outdoors but the 29-year-old impressed on the European indoor circuit 12 months ago.

He claimed no fewer than five top-50 wins during this swing, reaching the quarter-finals in Metz, the semi-finals in Sofia and the last 16, as a qualifier, at the Paris Masters.

Korda’s weekend final was the third of his career at this level.

After one of the previous two he played the following week and was duly crushed in the first round in straight sets.

A quick turnaround and adapting to new conditions can be awkward and I believe there’s some value to be had in backing Giron at around +184.

Holger Rune vs Thiago Monteiro

I’ve long felt Monteiro’s serve is under-rated when conditions are right and that shot could get some cut-through on the Plexipave courts of Stockholm this week.

He’s not really a natural indoors – outdoor clay is his domain – but I doubt he’ll roll over in this contest.

The Brazilian certainly tested Pablo Carreno Busta in Gijon last week, losing only 6-4 7-6, and something similar here would deliver for his handicap backers.

Monteiro is getting 3.5 games against a player whose form has improved in recent weeks but also one who hasn’t been winning easily – he’s lost at least a set in five of his last six matches.

This is a long way from must-bet territory but I’m tempted enough by Monteiro to get involved.

Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Francisco Cerundolo

Cerundolo is another of the claycourters who is still feeling his way on hardcourts.

His rankings climb was based almost entirely on his ability on clay and this is his first full season on the main tour.

He’s lost his first match at a hardcourt tournament on eight occasions this season, while his last nine matches on this surface have produced just a single win.

Yes, this was the man who made a surprise run to the last four of the Miami Masters earlier in the year, but he was aided by two wins via retirement that week.

In contrast, Huesler arrives in fine fettle having recently captured his maiden ATP title in Sofia – reward from some strong performances in the weeks prior.

He’ll definitely like the conditions on offer in Sweden the most and should be trusted to oust the seeded player.

Oscar Otte vs Elias Ymer

I’m going to put Huesler in a parlay with Otte, another who should enjoy what are usually decent-paced conditions in Stockholm.

He looks a little overpriced, probably because Ymer is playing on home soil.

However, Elias, the older and lower-ranked Ymer brother, has struggled at this level on a hardcourt of late.

Since mid-February, he’s beaten just one top-100 player on a hardcourt (Seba Baez in Davis Cup last month).

Most recently he was seen playing on the Asian swing, losing in the qualifying competition in both Seoul and Tokyo.

Following summer knee surgery, opponent Otte is getting better with each passing match.

He notched a decent win over Marton Fucsovics in Florence last week where he pushed eventual champion Felix Auger-Aliassime to a deciding set in the following round.

Otte also took a set off Marin Cilic in Astana and should be able to win this, even without the crowd on his side.

Round Two Upsets?

The top seeds in both Antwerp and Stockholm could be vulnerable in their opening matches this week.

In Belgium, Hubert Hurkacz will face either Jack Draper or Jenson Brooksby, neither of whom would be a pushover.

Meanwhile, Stefanos Tsitsipas will open against either Ilya Ivashka or Maxime Cressy in Sweden – two good servers who should be aided by the conditions.

You have to question Tsitsipas’ motivation this week given he’s already booked his place at the ATP Finals which are now less than a month away, while the lucrative Paris Masters is also looming.

I’d expect him to meet Ivashka first and the Belarusian is in good form, last week pushing eventual champion Andrey Rublev to 6-4 in the third set in Gijon.

Finally, it might also be worth opposing Diego Schwartzman in Antwerp.

The Argentine has reached the final there on three occasions in the past, something which the layers will take into account, but his form is awful – he was recently axed from Argentina’s Davis Cup team after one particularly miserable display.

Schwartzman has now lost three in a row since heading indoors after the US Open and may fall to David Goffin, who recently defeated world number one Carlos Alcaraz in Astana.

Goffin, who faces a Belgian wild card in round one, holds a 4-1 lead on the head-to-head record, all on hardcourts. He is 2-1 ahead indoors.

Best Futures Pick

This column fell just short when backing Denis Shapovalov in Tokyo a couple of weeks ago but he’s worth siding with again in Stockholm.

This was the scene of the Canadian’s only ATP title to date, while he was runner-up here last season too.

He’s in fine form having made the semi-finals in Tokyo and the final in Seoul during that Asian swing.

Shapovalov still has an outside chance of making those ATP Finals and looks well drawn this week – the seeds in the other half are Cameron Norrie (returning from COVID), Alex de Minaur (also played little of late) and Holger Rune.

Given his form, Shapovalov looks capable of coming through that side of the draw and is worthy of support at +650.

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