US Open Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks
- Dominic Thiem good value to win his quarter
- Diego Schwartzman also a big price to reach the semi-finals
- Johnson can topple compatriot Isner in round one
US Open Men’s Singles Odds
|Roberto Bautista Agut||+2500|
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US Open Men’s Singles Predictions and Picks
Dominic Thiem is a top hardcourt player and one of the fittest – crucial in this five-set format. He looks overpriced at +450 with BetMGM to win his quarter.
Diego Schwartzman has impressed at the US Open before. In a soft quarter, he looks the value at +1600 with BetMGM to reach the last four.
In an all-American first-round match-up, Steve Johnson can continue his strong record against John Isner and deliver a +200 winner with BetMGM.
How to Watch the US Open
|US Open Information|
|Where||Flushing Meadows, New York|
|When||Monday, August 31 to Sunday, September 13|
|How to Watch||Tennis Channel share coverage, Watch on ESPN+ here!|
Take Thiem in New York
In a weakened field short of both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic will start the 2020 US Open as the hot favourite.
Yet anyone backing him at a short price should remember that he had COVID-19 in June and the virus has been shown to have lingering effects. What will happen if he finds himself dragged into a tough five-set battle in the heat and humidity of New York?
Admittedly given his 2020 form, that’s a fairly big ‘if’ but I’d still much rather seek out some alternative bets with better value – and those come in the quarter markets, thus eliminating Djokovic from the outcomes.
The best of them look to be Dominic Thiem to win the fourth quarter at +450.
Thiem has 2020 form (Australian Open runner-up) in the bank, played and won often during the tour’s suspension and, crucially, is one the fittest players on the circuit. That could be vital in the best-of-five-set format given we’re just a week into the tour’s comeback.
The one negative is last week’s dismal defeat to Filip Krajinovic, although that was the first time Thiem had faced the Serb’s testing serve.
That loss suggested the new Laykold courts at Flushing Meadows may be a little too quick for Thiem but as second seed he’ll likely play the majority of his matches on the show courts – Ashe and Armstrong. Andy Murray is one of several players to have described conditions on those courts as “much slower”.
Thiem’s two closest market rivals – Roberto Bautista Agut and Milos Raonic – are due to meet each other in round three, while doubts remain over Andy Murray’s ability to win five best-of-five matches following his hip replacement.
Schwartzman Can Master Quarter
Diego Schwartzman looks underrated in the second quarter market, one for which Stefanos Tsitsipas is a strong favourite.
The Greek’s draw does look good but Schwartzman, who beat him in their only previous hardcourt meeting, has enjoyed his trips to New York in the past, reaching the quarter-finals in both 2017 and 2019.
During last year’s run, he defeated the second favourite in this market, Alex Zverev, and also leads that head-to-head.
I’m therefore surprised to see him up at +1600 to go one better and make the semis this time around.
It is probably concern over the faster courts – less than ideal for the Argentine – which has produced this price but his returning ability can be a strength in these conditions.
During a narrow defeat to the big-serving Reilly Opelka last week he created seven breakpoints, winning two.
If he faces the big serves of Hubert Hurkacz, Zverev and Tsitsipas in the next fortnight, he looks well equipped to deal with them.
Johnson More Than a Match for Isner
John Isner’s US Open record is nothing to write home about and his fellow American Steve Johnson looks capable of causing a first-round upset when they meet.
Johnson may have slipped to 63rd in the rankings (he was once in the top 25) but the key here is he knows Isner’s game – and feared serve – better than almost anyone. The pair have long been Davis Cup team-mates.
That’s reflected in their results. They’ve met nine times with Johnson winning five. On a hard court, it’s 4-2 in Johnson’s favour.
Earlier this season, Johnson won two Challenger Tour titles on a hardcourt, while during the tour’s suspension he claimed the notable scalps of Reilly Opelka and Taylor Fritz, like Isner both big servers, at the All-American Cup event.
He did suffer a disappointing loss in qualifying at last week’s Western and Southern Open but one bad result can be forgiven, especially given his strong head-to-head record in this match-up.
As well as being ahead on the match wins count, he’s also up on tie-breaks won (6-5) which is potentially crucial given 11 of their 23 sets have gone the distance.
Johnson at +200 on the money line looks good value here.
More Tennis Predictions & Odds
Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.