UFC 269 Oliveira vs Poirier Main Card Predictions, Picks, Odds

  • Charles Oliveira defends the lightweight title against Dustin Poirier
  • Amanda Nunes defends the bantamweight title against Julianna Pena
  • Former bantamweight champ Cody Garbrandt makes his flyweight debut

UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier

The odds for this match are provided by the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Fighter Odds
(C) Charles Oliveria +134
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Dustin Poirier -164
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Fighter Odds
(C) Amanda Nunes -950
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Julianna Pena +590
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Fighter Odds
Geoff Neal -105
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Santiago Ponzinibbio -115
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Fighter Odds
Kai Kara-France +124
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Cody Grabrandt -152
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Fighter Odds
Raulian Paiva +260
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Sean O’Malley -340
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UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier – Picks & Predictions

(C) Charles Oliveria vs Dustin Poirier – Lightweight championship

Dustin Porier (-164)

(C) Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena – Women’s bantamweight championship

Amanda Nunes (-950)

Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio – Welterweight division

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-115)

Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt – Flyweight division

Kai Kara-France (+124)

Raulian Paiva vs Sean O’Malley – Bantamweight division

Raulian Paiva (+260)

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Oliveira vs Poirier

(C) Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier – Lightweight Championship

Charles Oliveira TALE OF THE TAPE Dustin Poirier
32 Age 32
5 ft. 10 in. Height 5 ft. 9 in.
74 in. Reach 72 in.
31-8, 1 no-contest Record 28-6, 1 no-contest

Two former featherweights go to battle for the lightweight title Saturday night and there has arguably never been as much talent in the octagon at one time as there will be in this main event.

Lightweight champion Charles Oliveira is currently riding a nine-fight winning streak that includes a dismantling of former interim champion Tony Ferguson and a knockout win over Michael Chandler this past May at UFC 262 in which he captured the vacant UFC lightweight gold.

The Brazilian fighter holds a third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and he has put it to good use over the course of his UFC tenure, as he holds the record for most submission wins and most UFC finishes.

His opponent, Dustin Porier, is no slouch on the ground either. Poirier holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has seven professional wins via submission.

Poirier is also a former interim lightweight champion who lost against the unbeatable Khabib Nurmagomedov in a unification bout. Since that defeat. Poirier has won three in a row: a decision win over Dan Hooker and back-to-back TKO wins over Conor McGregor – with his latest bout taking place this past July at UFC 264.

Some would argue that Poirier’s striking is more polished than the champion’s, but it is Oliveira who will have the height and reach advantage in this fight. Oliveira also brings more professional fight experience into the cage.

With that said, it is Dustin Poirier who sits as the -164 favorite to win.

(C) Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena – Women’s bantamweight championship

Amanda Nunes TALE OF THE TAPE Julianna Pena
33 Age 32
5 ft. 8 in. Height 5 ft. 7 in.
69 in. Reach 69 in.
21-4 Record 10-4

Minus-950.

Those are the odds in favor of double-champion Amanda Nunes heading into Saturday night’s co-main event.

Nunes captured the bantamweight title from Meisha Tate at UFC 200 and hasn’t looked back since, earning wins over Ronda Rousey, Valentina Shevchenko, and Holly Holm and also captured the women’s featherweight title from Cris Cyborg in 2018.

The champion most recently fought Megan Anderson at UFC 259 this past March and easily earned a first-round submission win. Anderson was released from the UFC shortly after.

Her opponent, Juianna Pena, has been itching to fight Nunes since August, when the two were originally scheduled to face each other at UFC 265. However the champion had to pull out of the contest due to COVID-19.

Pena is coming off of a win over Sara McMann this past January, but, like many of Nunes’ opponents these days, doesn’t have much to brag about – holding a record of just 2-2 over her last four fights.

The double-champ is taller than her opponent and boasts a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a brown belt in judo. Putting it lightly, Julianna Pena does not.

At +590, you will not find a bigger betting underdog on this card than Juliann Pena.

Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio – Welterweight division

Geoff Neal TALE OF THE TAPE Santiago Ponzinibbio
31 Age 35
5 ft. 11 in. Height 6 ft.
75 in. Reach 73 in.
13-4 Record 28-4

Once again, Neal Magny finds himself closing out his year with a UFC fight in time for Christmas. Neal fought on the last card of 2020 and was on the losing end of a decision against Stephen Thompson.

Neal has fought only once so far in 2021 – losing another unanimous decision to Neil Magny this past May. Unfortunately for Neal, the only thing newsworthy about the fighter to come out since his last fight were his DWI and gun possession charges.

Santiago Ponzinibbio was on a seven-fight winning streak in the welterweight division when injuries sidelined him for two years. He made his return to the octagon this past January but was quickly knocked out by Li Jingliang. However, he has since bounced back with a fight of the night performance against Miguel Baeza – a fight that Ponzinibbio won by unanimous decision.

Ponzinibbio will stand one-inch taller in Saturday night’s contest but it is Geoff Neal who will have a two-inch reach advantage. Ponzinibbio brings a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt into this contest compared to Neal’s blue belt.

The odds are close in this one but it is Ponzinibbio who has been labeled as the -115 favorite to win.

Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt – Flyweight division

Kai Kara-France TALE OF THE TAPE Cody Garbrandt
28 Age 30
5 ft. 4 in. Height 5 ft. 7 in.
69 in. Reach 65.6 in.
22-9, 1 no-contest Record 12-4

Former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt has moved down in weight to test his luck in the flyweight division after going 1-4 over his last five fights at 135-pounds – with his most recent bout ending as a unanimous decision loss.

Kai Kara-France has also struggled as of late, holding a record of just 2-2 over his last four fights. However, unlike Garbrandt, Kara-France is coming off of a win – a first-round knockout of Rogerio Bontorin this past March.

The former champion will be the taller fighter in this match up; something that rarely happened for him in the bantamweight division. But Kara-France will still have the advantage in reach.

Garbrandt boasts NCAA division II wrestling credentials but Kara-France holds a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. This is likely to end up as a stand-up affair – with both fighters having highlight reel knockouts on their resumes.

Despite cutting the extra weight for the first time, Cody Garbrandt is seen as the favorite to win at -152.

Raulian Paiva vs Sean O’Malley – Bantamweight Division

Raulian Paiva TALE OF THE TAPE Sean O’Malley
26 Age 27
5 ft. 8 in. Height 5 ft. 11 in.
69.5 in. Reach 72 in.
21-3 Record 14-1

 

Riding a two-fight winning streak that saw him win back-to-back fights by third-round TKO, Sean O’Malley continues to put his first career loss behind him.

Comfortable to not rush his career, O’Malley takes on a fellow unranked bantamweight in Raulian Paiva – a fighter who is currently riding a three-fight winning streak that includes a knockout over Mark De La Rosa.

This will be Paiva’s second UFC bout at bantamweight, having struggled to make the 125-pound limit for the flyweight division in recent years.

O’Malley, mostly known for his height and reach, also holds a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He’ll likely have it tested against Paiva, a man who holds a black belt in the same discipline.

O’Malley will stand three inches taller than Paiva and will have a 2.5-inch reach advantage as well. He is a -340 favorite but Paiva brings in significantly more combat experience to this battle.

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How to Watch UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier

Oliveira vs Poirier Information
Event UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier
Location T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada
Time Saturday, December 11, 10PM EST
How to watch PPV, UFC Fight Pass, ESPN+

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Ryan Bristlon

Expert on UFC

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.



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