Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas Predictions, Odds, Picks

Written by: Frank Monkhouse
Updated October 14, 2022
5 min read
  • Madison Square Garden provides the setting
  • Liam Smith has a 30-3-1 record
  • Jessie Vargas carries a 29-3-2 CV

Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas Odds

The prices quoted in this table have been taken from the Caesars Sportsbook and are correct at the time of writing, but please keep in mind that boxing odds are subject to change and may have been altered at the time of this article being published and you placing your bets on the big fight.

Winner Odds
Liam Smith -250
Draw +2000
Jessie Vargas +175


Liam Smith Vs Jessie Vargas

British boxing supremo and head of Matchroom Boxing, Eddie Hearn, increases his involvement in the US by staging what promises to be a thrilling card from the Mecca of the sport this weekend. Madison Square Garden provides the setting for a competitive evening of professional boxing featuring Katie Taylor’s latest title defence against Amanda Serrano. No less than ten respected titles will be on the line here, including the WBC female world lightweight strap. There is something for everyone, and the venue will be packed to capacity with fight fans. Armchair followers can keep tabs on the main events courtesy of the live action shown on DAZN.

There is plenty to get excited about here, but we choose to concentrate on a bout from the undercard that has kept everyone guessing during the build-up. Unlike the other fights on the card, there is no title at stake when Liam Smith faces Jessie Vargas, but that will take nothing away from the bout. Here we have two gladiators who have been accused of being past their best but also two who are determined to show critics that there is plenty more in the tank.

The winner of this UK vs US match could propel themselves towards the top names of the division, climbing the rankings and securing at least one more big payday. To have any chance of making that happen, either Smith or Vargas must win this bout and do it in the style that shows they still have much to offer the sport. On paper, this looks as close to a 50/50 fight as we have seen for a while, and although there’s nothing but pride at stake here, any follower of the noble art knows that’s more than enough to ensure a great contest. Promoters could have made this bout for a decent ranking title, but there’s no need. Smith and Vargas know what’s at stake here.

Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas Pick

Back Jessie Vargas to win +175

Liam Smith has enjoyed a fantastic career in the sport of boxing and has already shared a ring with the likes of Saul Alvarez. He was taken out in round nine of a 2016 meeting with Canelo in Arlington, but, as any casual follower of boxing already knows, there is absolutely no shame in that result. The Mexican has dominated boxing through the divisions and won that night, but he didn’t get things all his own way. Unlike other British victims of Canelo – such as Amir Khan or Kell Brook – Smith has shown that he has held onto his ambition, even after being stopped by a pound for pound living legend. Liam – known as Beefy – thrives on the big stage.

Since the defeat to Canelo, we have seen Smith in action nine times with a mixed bag of results, but he has won more than he’s lost, with the stats currently standing at seven wins and two defeats. He was beaten on points by another exciting Mexican fighter in Jaime Munguia, then on the scorecards against Magomed Kurbanov in Russia. That was two fights he was expected to lose against two talented opponents. Since the loss in Russia last year, Smith has fought just once, but it was a winning appearance, stopping English rival Anthony Fowler inside eight rounds at the Echo Arena, Liverpool, late in 2021.

Looking through the stats, we note that Smith has gone the scheduled distance in two of his last three fights, with the spare being that win over Fowler in what became a bit of a grudge match. We are expecting this but also to test the scoring judges sitting at ringside, and it’s likely we’ll have a home win for Vargas, who will be backed by a vocal support inside Madison Square Garden. At the same time, Smith finds himself far from home despite sharing a card with Katie Taylor.

Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas Prediction

Smith is an experienced boxer, and the fact he took Canelo into the second half of the fight before the Mexican got through and going the distance in Russia proves the character of this man. He’s a warrior and will come to New York to soak up the occasion and put on a show. Yes, he’s good enough to defeat Vargas, and there’s little between the pair on paper, but the home advantage should sway it for Jessie.

Vargas is a Las Vegas fighter and a constant on the US boxing scene. His recent form has been poor, winning only one of his last four outings, with that period showing two draws and a defeat. He was beaten by Mikey Garcia in February on points, climbing off the canvas in round five to make it the distance against the expectations of many. He’s a tough fighter, and this will be close, but the American should benefit from some home scoring.

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How to Watch Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas

Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas Information
Fight Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas
Promoter Matchroom Boxing
Location Madison Square Garden, New York
Date and Time Saturday 30 April, 20:00 EST
How to watch Live on DAZN
21+ | Terms and conditions apply
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Frank Monkhouse

Boxing Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Former professional boxer at the world-famous TRAD TKO Gym in London, I am now a full-time freelance content writer, pundit, and podcast contributor working with some of the biggest names in the sports betting industry. I love boxing, football's most successful team Glasgow Rangers, and horse racing.
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