Bundesliga 2020/21 Top Four Finish Predictions, Odds & Picks

Top Four

  • Bayern Munich are sure of a place but the remaining three spots are up for grabs
  • Borussia Dortmund are RB Leipzig are favorites but must remain alert
  • Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Monchengladbach could face more competition this term

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Bundesliga Top-Four Finish Odds

Odds taken 4 March 2021, from DraftKings Sportsbook

Top-Four Finish Odds
Bayern Munich N/A
RB Leipzig N/A
Wolfsburg -200
Borussia Dortmund -200
Eintracht Frankfurt +120
Bayer Leverkusen +250
Borussia Monchengladbach +1100
Freiburg +4000
Union Berlin +4000

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Bundesliga Top-Four Finish Predictions and Picks

Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig are battling it out for the Bundesliga title, and both are virtually guaranteed of a place in next season’s Champions League. DraftKings Sportsbook does not even offer odds on either of the top two going on to finish above fifth place.

Borussia Dortmund might be outside the qualification spots at present, but they look to have got over their mid-season slump and are coming on strong as the business end of the campaign approaches. Back BVB to break into the top four before the curtain comes down on 2020/21.

The final place is likely to be between Eintracht Frankfurt and Wolfsburg. Both teams have things going in their favor, but the best betting option is on the former, who are better going forward. In the market for the top four, back Dortmund and Eintracht.

How to Watch Bundesliga

Bundesliga Information
What 2020/21 Bundesliga season
Where Germany
When 18 September 2020 – 22 May 2021
How to Watch ESPN+

Borussia Dortmund’s Star Power Should Bring a Strong Finish

Bayern Munich swept all before them the last term, winning the Bundesliga, the Champions League, and the DFB-Pokal. But in spite of the Bavarians’ dominance on all fronts, Borussia Dortmund went into this season with hopes of challenging for the title. They may have finished a distant second in 2019/20, but with Jadon Sancho retained and Erling Haaland set to play his first full season for BVB, hopes were high that Lucien Favre’s side could challenge at the top.

Those hopes were abandoned long ago. Favre was sacked in December after a rotten run of form, but his dismissal did not instantly solve all Dortmund’s woes. Interim manager Edin Terzic struggled to turn things around at first, and a club that were rated as -2000 contenders to get into the top four last summer slumped as low as seventh in the standings. In recent weeks, though, things have started to look up for Dortmund.

The catalyst for the improvement seems to have been the excellent 3-2 victory over Sevilla in the Champions League. Dortmund subsequently eased past Schalke and Arminia Bielefeld in the Bundesliga, keeping back-to-back clean sheets for the first time since October.

BVB, who will be managed by Marco Rose next term, are still three points short of the fourth spot. There is, however, ample reason to believe they will overturn that deficit in the coming weeks. Dortmund have the superior individual quality to the teams around them, not least in the form of Sancho and Haaland up top. On top of that, the squad has ample experience of qualifying for the Champions League. That could be a valuable asset as the finish line comes into sight.

Eintracht Frankfurt and Wolfsburg Are Very Much in the MIX

If Dortmund do climb into the top four before the season is out, one of Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will have to drop out. Both are enjoying excellent comebacks – somewhat unexpectedly. While many expected the two clubs to be involved in the race for continental competition, it was widely thought that Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt were Europa League, rather than Champions League, contenders. Indeed, in pre-season DraftKings Sportsbook offered +500 on the former finishing in the top four and +1000 on the latter.

Wolfsburg’s success up to now has been built on a rock-solid backline. No team in the division has conceded fewer goals than the Wolves, whose defense has been breached on just 19 occasions. Oliver Glasner’s men are hard to beat, but the flip side of their solidity is that they can be relatively limp in the attack. Wolfsburg have scored only 37 goals this term, which is fewer than any other team involved in the top-four race.

It is in that area where Eintracht Frankfurt have a distinct advantage. Only Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich have found the back of the net more often this season, which is testament to Frankfurt’s productivity in the final third. As the nerves start to kick in, it may well be more important to be able to score goals than keep clean sheets, since a series of draws might not be enough. Wolfsburg are a fine team but Eintracht Frankfurt have the edge in this race, and Draft Kings offers more generous odds on them finishing in the top four too.

Bayer Leverkusen Are Outsiders but Remain in the Race

Bayer Leverkusen cannot be ruled out entirely, although a price of +250 indicates that they are outsiders. Peter Bosz’s side currently occupies the sixth spot in the standings, but their form is much poorer than that suggests. Indeed, Leverkusen were top of the table after 12 rounds of fixtures, but they have won only two of their last 11 Bundesliga matches. A failure to turn things around quickly will see Leverkusen soon ruled out of the top-four race, even if they remain a part of it for now.Borussia Monchengladbach have also faded badly. The news that their manager Rose will be joining Dortmund in the summer has not helped, but Gladbach might have run out of steam regardless. They are down in mid-table right now and might not even qualify for the Europa League.

Freiburg and Union Berlin have exceeded expectations this season, and the fact that DraftKings Sportsbook even offers odds on them finishing in the top four at this stage of the campaign is an achievement in itself. It is safe to say that neither will be playing Champions League soccer in 2021/22, though.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.

Email: [email protected]